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At the same time, thousands of companies big and small are poised to sue for refunds of more than $170 billion the US has collected in tariff revenue. 

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Will Trump address ICE raids? 

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Trump’s 2024 comeback was in part fueled by his promise of swiftly deporting people who are in the country illegally and securing the southern US border.

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But the violent Immigration and Customs Enforcement blitz in Minneapolis that resulted in the killings of two American citizens touched off nationwide protests and rare bipartisan backlash. It has turned public sentiment, with 54% of Americans saying that the surge in immigration enforcement was a bad idea in retrospect, according to an Economist/YouGov poll released last week. 

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Expect Trump to reframe the issue as one of criminal justice, especially since Democrats have refused to fund the Department of Homeland Security absent ICE reforms, leading to the ongoing partial government shutdown. 

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Will Trump tip his hand on Iran? 

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The possibility of US attacking Iran is looming large. 

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Trump has said he is considering limited strikes, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran to come to a quick deal over its nuclear program. If there’s no agreement, Trump warned in a social media post Monday, “it will be a very bad day” for the country.

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What to expect on Ukraine and the drug war

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Trump’s speech comes as Kyiv marks its fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The president, who has lamented that he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on foreign conflicts, has blamed both Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy at different times for stalling the peace process. The US led trilateral talks in Geneva last week, which broke up after barely 90 minutes with little headway on key issues.

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Many of the president’s supporters remain skeptical about US involvement overseas. But expect to hear him tout his global moves, including the military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America as well as efforts to reopen Venezuela’s oil industry after the surprise capture and arrest of that nation’s president Nicolás Maduro. 

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Will Trump preview his budget?  

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By law, Trump must deliver his budget proposal to Congress by the end of the month. The address is a chance for the president to outline his spending priorities to sway a populace that last year handed key election victories to Democrats who zeroed in on the cost of living.

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The president’s previous budget focused on drastic cuts to federal programs for housing, health, education and research programs while increasing military spending. 

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Who are Trump’s guests?

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The State of the Union might have an Olympic twist: Trump invited the US men’s hockey team to attend when he congratulated members after their gold-clinching overtime victory over Canada Sunday. 

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The women’s hockey team, which also won gold in an overtime finish against Canada, declined a similar invitation to the address because of previous commitments, according to its representatives.

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—With assistance from Mark Niquette and Gregory Korte.

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