Here's an interesting traffic pattern: sportsbook users appear to be discovering prediction markets—not the other way around. New Apptopia data shared by industry analyst Mick Bransfield shows the share of DraftKings users who also opened Kalshi jumped 45% between June 1 and June 22, while FanDuel-to-Kalshi crossover rose 35%. The reverse trend was notably weaker, suggesting sports bettors are increasingly branching into prediction markets rather than prediction market traders migrating to sportsbooks. 

Apptopia: "The cross-app flow runs one direction. The share of DraftKings users who also opened Kalshi rose 45% from June 1 to June 22, and FanDuel-to-Kalshi rose 35%. Kalshi users trialing the sportsbooks actually declined over the same stretch." pic.twitter.com/Afluqyk7Vo

If you're the type who reads regulatory filings over breakfast, today is your lucky day. 

Novig has published a fresh batch of CFTC filings on its corporate website, including documents outlining its liquidity provider program, referral incentives, new member deposit program, points program, specified contracts program, and updates to its Ludlow Rule framework. 

New set of CFTC filings just posted on the @Novig exchange corporate website. Link in reply. pic.twitter.com/9SBTRU24LG

That's one very expensive game of football. Kalshi's FIFA World Cup Winner market has officially surpassed $1 billion in trading volume, becoming the platform's largest market by a wide margin. 

For perspective, Kalshinomics CEO Aaron Brogan noted that the highest-volume non-sports market—the 2028 Democratic nominee contract—has traded about $143 million. The milestone underscores just how powerful global sporting events have become for regulated prediction markets, with traders piling into contracts more than a year before kickoff.

New Jersey lawmakers have dramatically watered down their proposal to regulate prediction markets, swapping an ambitious licensing and enforcement regime for a much simpler 9% surtax on operator income.

Gone are the hefty 29.75% tax rate, licensing requirements, and million-dollar daily fines that initially grabbed headlines. The move suggests lawmakers may be taking a more measured approach while the courts sort out who actually gets to regulate prediction markets. 

It doesn't mean the Garden State is waving the white flag—just that it's putting away the bazooka and picking up a calculator instead.

Just when Polymarket thought one lawsuit was enough for the day, another one arrived. A new complaint accuses the prediction market platform of changing the resolution rules on a Bitcoin-related market after trading had closed, allegedly turning what should have been a winning position into a losing one. The plaintiffs also claim Polymarket failed to pay out legitimate winners, raising fresh questions about transparency and market governance. 

Polymarket disputes the allegations, but the case is likely to renew debate over who gets the final say when prediction markets meet messy real-world outcomes. Another day, another courtroom.

#Polymarket lawsuit alleges #Bitcoin market rules changed after outcome occurred - https://t.co/X8dRcCSFor @RWW

Welcome to today's live blog.

The civil case against U.S. Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke is already heading for an early legal showdown after his lawyers asked a federal judge to fast-track consideration of their motion to dismiss the CFTC's lawsuit before trial. Their argument? The agency is stretching the Commodity Exchange Act beyond its limits, and the Polymarket contracts at the center of the case aren't swaps at all. 

Safe to say, today's opening bell is being rung in a courtroom. 

US soldier seeks swift dismissal amid #Polymarket classified betting fraud legal battle - https://t.co/5T617Ms5ya @RWW