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News24 | Report of US-Iran sanctions deal hits oil, boosts rand

2 weeks ago 9

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A billboard depicts an AI-generated image of the Strait of Hormuz and an effigy of US President Donald Trump, displayed on the wall of a state building in downtown Tehran, Iran. A report from Al Arabiya said that Iran had agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling of its facilities.

A billboard depicts an AI-generated image of the Strait of Hormuz and an effigy of US President Donald Trump, displayed on the wall of a state building in downtown Tehran, Iran. A report from Al Arabiya said that Iran had agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling of its facilities.

Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images


The dollar slipped against most major currencies on ⁠Monday as oil prices fell and 10-year US Treasury yields retreated from a 15-month high, ⁠after an Iranian news report indicated that the United States was set to waive sanctions on Iranian crude.

A separate report from Al Arabiya also said that Iran had agreed to a long-term nuclear freeze instead of a complete dismantling of its facilities.

The ‌news reports sent oil prices lower and boosted other markets.

“Clearly that was the impetus,” said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading.

After weakening to above R16.75/$ early on Monday, the rand recovered to R16.63 in evening trading.

The euro was last up 0.15% at $1.1643 and sterling strengthened 0.53% to $1.3389.

The dollar index, which tracks ‌the US currency against six others, dipped 0.17% to 99.10, having posted its strongest weekly performance in three months last week.

The dollar had been buoyed by energy disruptions in the Middle East, as the US economy is better positioned to absorb higher costs than many of its peers.

However, a ‌global bond sell-off – which extended ⁠earlier on Monday before reversing – has also highlighted growing concerns that rising energy prices could push central banks toward higher interest rates.

“Although expectations regarding the Fed had shifted significantly towards a more restrictive monetary policy from the outset, market participants were still reluctant to bet on interest rate hikes. This changed last week, with expectations regarding the Fed shifting most markedly among the G10,” said Commerzbank strategist Michael Pfister.

Some of the market moves are also likely due to investors testing whether Kevin Warsh, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair, will react to higher inflation if needed, said Brien. “They’re going to want to see that Warsh ⁠is his own man rather than the president’s man at the Fed.”

Warsh has argued there is room to lower rates, though persistent inflation – driven in part by the war in the Middle East – could frustrate those hopes. Markets are pricing in a greater than 52% chance that the Fed ⁠will raise rates by January.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.05% to 158.86 against the US dollar, its weakest since 30 April.

Additional reporting by News24.

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