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News24 | Markets brush off Trump’s bluster — for now — but oil prices rise

1 month ago 20

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The rand remained weak, but steady, on Tuesday morning as market players took a wait-and-see approach to US President Donald Trump’s threat to “decimate” Iran.

The rand remained weak, but steady, on Tuesday morning as market players took a wait-and-see approach to US President Donald Trump’s threat to “decimate” Iran.


Oil prices rose on Tuesday, while equities edged up tentatively as investors assessed Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz or be “decimated”.

As the Middle East war entered its sixth week, the US president warned Tehran that its civilian infrastructure would be destroyed if it did not let ships through the waterway, through which a fifth of global crude and gas passes.

The remarks came as he and the Islamic Republic said a proposal touted by international mediators for a 45-day ceasefire was not yet ready.

Trump told a news conference that “the entire country” of Iran “could be taken out in one night and that night might be tomorrow night”, if his ultimatum to reopen the Strait by Wednesday 02:00 SA time was not met.

“We have a plan... where every bridge in Iran will be decimated... where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” Trump said, brushing aside accusations that such a move would be a war crime.

“I mean complete demolition... and it’ll happen over a period of four hours — if we wanted to.”

The threat came after a profanity-laced social media post on Easter Sunday in which he vowed Iran would be “living in Hell” if it didn’t reopen the Strait.

Tehran said that if such an attack went ahead, it would retaliate by striking energy infrastructure in the Gulf, which could deal a further blow to already thin oil supplies and hammer the global economy.

Both main oil contracts rose on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate around $115 per barrel — its highest in a month — and Brent crude oil increased to $111.71, close to its high of $114.81 reached on 27 March. The oil price has shot up by 50% since the start of the war on 28 February.

Equity markets fluctuated, with Tokyo flat, while Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Bangkok rose along with London, Paris and Frankfurt. The JSE, however, was down by 0.3% at around 11:00.

Singapore, Mumbai and Jakarta fell. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday.

The rand remained weak but steady, strengthening to R16.81 per dollar in early morning trading.

“Financial markets are oscillating in a narrow, uneasy range as traders sized up the countdown to Donald Trump’s Iran deadline,” wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

“Tentative ceasefire optics (were) offering brief relief but never fully offsetting the lingering risk of escalation,” he added.

“For now, the rhetoric has tightened, the threats sharpened, and yet the market is not capitulating, conditioned by repetition to expect de-escalation just before the edge.

“Traders are no longer reacting to what is said, but to when it is usually walked back.”

The hit to fuel supplies from the Middle East has forced governments around the world to unveil economic support measures amid fears of another spike in inflation.

On Tuesday, the Philippines said inflation jumped to a forecast-topping 4.1% in March, its highest level in nearly two years.

US figures last week showed growth in the country’s services activity cooled last month as companies monitored the higher energy prices and braced for supply chain disruptions.

With additional reporting by News24.

A typographical error with the rand-dollar exchange rate has been corrected.

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