Ex-mill sugar prices fell nearly 30 per cent to ₹47 per kg on Monday, from a peak of ₹67 per kg on August 18, following a series of government interventions, but the drop has yet to filter down to retail shelves, industry sources said.

While the decline in ex-mill rates gets reflected almost immediately in wholesale markets, retail prices tend to lag.

Retailers who bought stock at the earlier, higher rates are unwilling to sell at a loss and will continue pricing their existing inventory at the older rate until it is exhausted, the sources explained.

A retailer typically holds 10-15 bags of sugar, each weighing 50 kg. Only once fresh stock is procured at the lower rate will retail prices adjust accordingly.

"It takes at least ten days to reflect changes in the retail price," an industry source said.

On Sunday, retail sugar was selling at ₹64.23 per kg, against a wholesale rate of ₹59.72 per kg.

Why ex-mill prices fell

The decline follows the government's decision to allow mills that had refined sugar for export to sell it in the domestic market instead. An estimated 3-3.5 lakh tonnes of this refined sugar is expected to enter the domestic market over the next two months.

Additionally, bulk consumers who had been holding stock for more than 15 days have trimmed their inventories to comply with new government norms. From September 1, bulk users consuming more than 10 tonnes of sugar a month will not be permitted to hold stock for more than 15 days at a stretch.

The monthly quantity sold by each mill to bulk consumers - whether directly or through dealers - will now be verified.

Industry sources noted that a gap of ₹2-3 per kg between ex-mill and wholesale prices, and ₹7-8 per kg between ex-mill and retail prices, is fairly typical.

Government's response

Besides opening up imports, the government has tightened stockholding norms for bulk users and dealers, and had earlier banned sugar exports.

The Centre has blamed mills for "jacking up" prices, insisting the country has ample sugar stocks - even as production estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year (October-September) have been revised down to 306 lakh tonnes, from an earlier projection of 343 lakh tonnes.

Annual domestic demand is pegged at around 280-285 lakh tonnes.