Carolyn Beeler: How much has Cuba actually opened the door to oil extraction by foreign companies? And does it just mean that, because foreign companies are not interested, this will amount to very little?

Jorge Piñon: In 2012, there were four drilling exploration activities in the Cuban Gulf of Mexico by companies like Repsol from Spain, Statoil [now known as Equinor] from Norway and others. And all four deepwater wells were dry. No oil was found. That doesn’t mean that there is no oil in Cuba’s deepwater, but again, it would take hundreds of millions of dollars. By the way, each of those four exploratory wells back in 2012 cost approximately $100 million.

Jorge, a few months ago, you estimated that Cuba had about 15 to 20 days of oil left before the country reached hour zero. Since then, one Russian oil tanker has reached Cuba. That was back in March. How is Cuba still managing to provide power to places like hospitals and give people electricity every once in a while? How has it managed to stay on longer than you have predicted?

We miscalculated the floating storage that Cuba has available.

Floating storage, so offshore storage?

In oil tankers. And we estimated that those were empty. It seems that they were not. We now believe that those oil tankers are now more or less empty for the second time. As you know from the US, Cuban Americans from Miami are exporting to Cuba ISO tanks. Those are small tanks, [each holding] 25,000 liters of diesel and gasoline, that independent Cuban entrepreneurs are selling on the open market. But that’s not enough to propel the Cuban economy where it needs to be, but it’s keeping the lights on in many parts of the country. Solar power is something new on the island that has certainly helped. But as for liquid fuels, yes, there are not enough for transport, and the agricultural sector needs them for tractors. This fuel is very important. So no, they’re going through a very difficult time.

I understand, and correct me if I’m wrong, but these reforms will make it easier for Cubans to import electric vehicles. Do Cubans have money to buy EVs? And how much could that help here?

No, I mean, it is very difficult. Every little drop helps, but if there is no electricity in the country, how is that electric vehicle going to be charged? People are having problems right now charging their electric phones. Can you imagine charging a Tesla in the middle of Havana? No, I think that, regrettably, is not something that would work in the short term.

You mentioned more people have been installing solar panels. Do these changes increase access to that option?

Rooftop is always welcome. And rooftop systems, where families can now have two or three panels on their roof, if they have good-sized batteries, then also to store that energy when the sun doesn’t shine. Yes, that is also good. A store battery in the home to charge an electric vehicle, that person will have to assume what their priority is. Is their priority to charge their car, or is it to be able to cook and have electricity in the house so that children can study at night?

Do you know if these policy changes will make it any easier for Cubans to access solar panels or the batteries that are also important?

Only to Cuban Americans or to Cubans with relatives in Miami who receive help from the diaspora. The other question that we have to ask is: For a typical Cuban, particularly an elderly Cuban today who doesn’t have family in Miami or family in the diaspora, how can they afford all of this? How can they afford these solar panels? How can they afford an electric vehicle? I don’t think so. I don’t think they can.

Cubans are famous for being adaptable and resilient in the face of many challenges. I know you spent your childhood there and still keep in touch with people who are there. What are you hearing about the workarounds that people are using to keep going with their daily lives?

They are building their own little distillation towers in their backyard and burning plastic enough for half a gallon or a gallon, which they then put in their truck or in their car. And it works, but it works for a little while because, be careful, those hydrocarbons also can damage the engines of those automobiles.

How widespread is that practice?

It takes somebody who knows how to build a little distillation tower in their backyard. But I think, again, it’s something that you can learn. And I would not be surprised if Cubans in the next few months copy and mimic what is being done today with backyard fuel.

And were you saying that this homemade gasoline production is also dangerous?

It is dangerous in the production itself because that distillation tower that they have built can certainly explode. Think about a mini oil refinery in Houston being reproduced in your backyard. That is extremely dangerous. Also, it’s corrosive and damages the fuel in your automobile. The gasoline that you and I use is not only gasoline, it has a number of additives and detergents that help the functioning of that gasoline.

Are there other ways that people are coping that are surprising to you?

The burning of coal, again, of briquettes of charcoal. But by the way, the key fuel now for Cubans to cook is LPG; it’s butane, or those little tanks that you and I use in our backyard barbecue to cook over the weekend. That’s another important fuel for Cuba. So, that is growing. The import of the ISO tanks — small 25,000-liter tanks that they put on container ships that are going to the Port of Mariel — is increasing. The problem is that they’re paying a very high price. So, those Cubans who are importing fuels from the US today — again, for the month of May, the value of that fuel, according to the US, was $28 million; it was very expensive — who can afford that? Diesel here in the US is now $5 a gallon. Which Cuban family, or Cuban farmer, for its trucks or tractors, can afford $5+ diesel?

The cooking gas that people are importing … are those private businesspeople in Cuba, or even just individuals importing from expats in the diaspora?

Yeah, it is all private diaspora. The issue then is that the US government has, of course, put sanctions against a number of individuals and companies in Cuba that cannot, quote unquote, “benefit” from that fuel that the private sector is importing. But who’s checking on that? Who’s policing that these sanctions are being followed? There are widespread reports throughout the island that the Cuban police and the local Cuban government are benefiting from that fuel because the small entrepreneurs don’t have any other option but to help them for their businesses to continue, and to be licensed. So, the sanctions are also not being executed, implemented or followed because the US doesn’t have a police force throughout the island that can enforce these sanctions.

You’ve been following energy in Cuba for a long time. Has anything surprised you about how this energy crisis is unfolding?

Yes, that the lights are still on. Yes, we have apagones, blackouts and brownouts throughout the island, but the country’s still functioning. Is it because of fuel? Is it because of the Cubans’ entrepreneurial skills? Is it because of the strength of the Cuban government that’s still there? The other issue is that, we just came back from Miami after a diaspora conference, and the big challenge we find is that the US doesn’t seem to have a roadmap for what the Cuba transition will be. We don’t have a roadmap for Venezuela. We don’t have a roadmap for Iran. And regrettably, we just don’t see the US government with a very clear roadmap for Cuba once the transition begins. The situation in Cuba could be much worse, by the way. During a transition period, when there is no leadership, there is no bureaucracy to run the country. I think we have a very challenging time still to come in the Cuba of tomorrow.

You did say, though, that once the transition comes, so is the feeling among the diaspora that there will be a change at some point?

I think everybody now is convinced that a change is coming. But again, Cuba is next, Venezuela is next, Iran is next. I think the US has its hands full, and I don’t think Cuba is a priority right now. The history of the Castro family, the problem with Cuba tomorrow or today is that there is no Fidel Castro. There is no caudillo. There is no leadership that Cuba had for what, for 60-plus years. Raúl [Castro] is in his 90s. Every day, we’re reading the Granma newspaper, one of the leaders of 90-plus years of age has passed away. So, that whole historical generation of caudillos that Cuba relied to survive is no longer there. So, where is the caudillo of tomorrow? Where is the Fidel Castro of tomorrow that is going to lead Cuba into a new 21st century? Right now, it’s not there.