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BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened: Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 38% to 35% in the first round, inside the margin of error.
- —How close: A runoff would be tighter still, at 45% to 44% for the president.
- —The real story: Lula has slipped from 41% in mid-August while Flávio Bolsonaro holds at 35%.
- —The catch: Both men carry 49% rejection, and half of Brazil disapproves of Lula’s government.
- —Where it tilts: Flávio Bolsonaro beats Lula 48% to 42% in Espírito Santo, while Minas Gerais is level.
- —What comes next: Brazil votes on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if no one wins outright.
Brazil’s presidential race is now a statistical tie. A PoderData/Aya poll released on Thursday puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, five weeks before the vote.
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A lead that fits inside the margin of error
The PoderData/Aya survey, released on Thursday 27 August, interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone between 23 and 26 August. Its margin of error is two percentage points, either way.
That margin swallows Lula’s three-point advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round. Read strictly, the Brazil presidential poll is a tie.
Behind the two leaders, the field is thin. Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury each take 4%, and Pablo Marçal takes 3%.
Two weeks ago the same institute had Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%. That survey left out Marçal, so the drop is partly a change of menu rather than a collapse.
The runoff projection is tighter still
In a head-to-head second round, Lula takes 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44%. Nine percent say they would spoil their ballot, and 2% are undecided.
The institute tested three other runoffs. Lula beats Renan Santos 44% to 37% and Romeu Zema 44% to 43%, while Caiado edges Lula 44% to 43%.
All four scenarios sit within or near the margin of error. On this evidence the October race has no clear favourite.
Half the country disapproves of Lula
Both front-runners are rejected by 49% of voters, who say they would never vote for them. That shared ceiling is what keeps the smaller candidates dreaming of an opening.
Lula’s government is disapproved of by 50% and approved by 42%. A rival BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released on Monday found nearly the same split: 49% against, 48% in favour.
Two states, two different warnings
The Real Time Big Data institute published state-level surveys on the same day. In Espírito Santo, Flávio Bolsonaro ties Lula 35% to 34% in the first round and wins the runoff 48% to 42%.
Lula is also the most rejected name in Espírito Santo, at 53%. The state is small, but its result flatters the senator’s claim that he can compete beyond the conservative south.
Minas Gerais, the second-largest electorate, points the other way. There Lula leads the first round 39% to 34%, and the runoff is a statistical tie at 46% to 44%.
The state’s own senator, Cleitinho Azevedo, leads every recent poll for governor of Minas Gerais. His strength makes Minas the most crowded battleground of the October vote.
What to watch before the first round
The broader polling picture agrees with Thursday’s tie. Datafolha found Lula ahead 39% to 33% on 21 August, and BTG/Nexus found a 46% to 45% runoff on 24 August.
Both point the same way as this Brazil presidential poll: Lula ahead on points, but not beyond doubt. The next round of surveys will show whether his slide has stopped.
Brazil votes on Sunday 4 October. If no candidate takes more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet again on 25 October.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
No one clearly. The PoderData/Aya poll released on 27 August 2026 puts Lula at 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in the first round, and 45% to 44% in a runoff, both inside the two-point margin of error.
What is the rejection rate of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro?
Both are rejected by 49% of voters in the PoderData/Aya survey. That means nearly half of Brazilians say they would never vote for either man.
When does Brazil vote in 2026?
The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026. A runoff, if needed, follows on 25 October 2026.
Sources: PoderData/Aya via Poder360 and CartaCapital; Real Time Big Data via CNN Brasil, Metrópoles and Revista Oeste; BTG Pactual/Nexus.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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