Kyle Bakx · CBC News

· Posted: Jun 24, 2025 10:52 AM EDT | Last Updated: 2 hours ago

Another year, another record for Alberta's oil industry.

Oilsands production is on pace to reach an all-time high this year as production in northern Alberta is expected to grow by five per cent in 2025 compared to last year.

The latest forecast released Wednesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates average annual production of 3.5 million barrels per day this year. By 2030, production could reach 3.9 million barrels per day.

The increase in output from the oilsands is not driven by any large new projects, but instead by smaller expansions and improvements to existing operations.

"The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization — and the favourable economics that underpin such operations," said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a statement.

"This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput," Birn said.

Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, noted that greenhouse gas emissions from Alberta's oilsands have also been rising, year after year.

"We can't lose sight of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands are also hitting record levels because the consequences are all around us in the climate change-fuelled wildfires, heat waves and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy," he said.

"This is why the federal government needs to implement its long-promised cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector." 

North American oil prices have been especially volatile so far this year, reaching highs of nearly $75 US per barrel twice, while also falling below $60 on several occasions. Oil markets have reacted to many geopolitical events including tariffs and conflict in the Middle East.

The Trans Mountain expansion pipeline began operating last year, which has increased Canada's ability to export more oil.

S&P's forecast still expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade.