When EU leaders gathered in Brussels on June 18-19, their agenda was packed with the bloc’s long-term budget, regional conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and global trade frictions. Although China was not explicitly named in the final European Council conclusions, the leaders’ discussions on “global macroeconomic imbalances” probably referred to the bloc’s fraught economic ties with Beijing.

The summit yielded an ambivalent mandate. EU leaders called on European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to maintain dialogue with key economic counterparts, while simultaneously urging an evaluation of the EU’s trade defense toolbox to design new regulatory instruments.

This leaves China-EU relations suspended in a familiar state of friction. Brussels’ bifurcated policy toward Beijing, which simultaneously pursues diplomatic engagement while clamping down on specific aspects of the economic relationship, is set to continue. Crucially, the summit offered no indication of a broader, unifying strategic framework to make this dual-track policy predictable. This lack of a coherent EU approach, compounded by member state policy oscillations, structurally caps what Brussels can achieve with Beijing, as it erodes the strategic confidence needed to reach meaningful compromises.

China-EU relations have been strained for years, weighed down by a matrix of evolving regulatory measures that restrict business activities on both sides. These frictions are complex and extend into multiple regulatory and business areas. 

For instance, both sides conducted trade probes and imposed tariffs on each other’s products. In October 2024, the EU imposed definitive countervailing duties ranging from 17 percent to 35.3 percent on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) manufactured in China to counter what Brussels sees as “unfair subsidization.” While BEVs dominate headlines, they represent just one facet of a wider regulatory campaign; the EU maintains a 79 percent tariff on Chinese ceramics and is investigating tire imports. 

On the other side of the equation, Beijing has launched targeted anti-dumping investigations and duties on European products. European pork, dairy, and brandy are all subject to import tariffs in China, ranging from 4.9 percent to 34.9 percent, depending on the specific goods. 

Furthermore, the two sides also have or plan to have regulatory restrictions in place that go beyond targeting a specific product group and apply to whole industries and supply chains. The EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act aims to shield strategic European sectors, while the upcoming revision of the Cybersecurity Act seeks to restrict “high-risk” vendors from EU telecommunications networks. While this move is country-agnostic on paper, it threatens Chinese tech giants like Huawei. 

Beijing has its own defensive legislation. The Provisions on Industrial and Supply Chain Security allow China to penalize foreign firms that discriminate against Chinese supply chains, while the Provisions on Countering Foreign Unlawful Extraterritorial Jurisdiction empower the Ministry of Justice to block domestic entities from complying with foreign probes. This latter tool was recently used to halt cooperation with the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) investigation into the security technology firm Nuctech.

Moreover, the two sides also have export control regulations in place in addition to trade probes and industry-wide acts. The EU continues to tighten export controls on dual-use goods to prevent European technology from potentially reaching Russia’s military economy via Chinese intermediaries. Conversely, China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements and permanent magnets put pressure on Europe’s industrial competitiveness and green transition.

This list of frictions is not exhaustive, as the two sides also have disagreements in other areas, like public procurement of medical devices. Nevertheless, even amid these compounding pressures in China-EU ties, diplomatic channels have not shut down. A European Parliament delegation led by Engin Eroglu visited China in late May, and Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Ling Ji met with the European Commission’s Ditte Juul Jorgensen on June 9 to discuss a new trade and investment consultation mechanism.

The June European Council took place amid media headlines that Europe’s debate on China was at a “boiling point,” and that leaders were moving in the direction of a “harder line toward” Beijing.

The actual outcome, however, was far more muted. Rather than choosing a definitive path, the Council chose to institutionalize its ambivalence. It handed the Commission a mandate to design new trade defense tools, reportedly focusing on diversification, while explicitly instructing it to continue dialogue with the EU’s key trade partners. Consequently, the commercial uncertainty defining the China-EU relationship is set to persist. 

The structural weakness of the EU’s approach is not just the Commission’s dual-track policy, but also the geopolitical inconsistency of its member states. Germany, whose economic weight naturally shapes the direction of EU policy, remains caught between preserving its close business ties with Beijing and maintaining unity with its European partners. As a result, Berlin continues to oscillate between a moderate approach and endorsing a stronger defensive posture. 

Similarly, Spain has demonstrated shifting priorities, recently pivoting from its initial support of a French-led policy paper demanding a tougher line on China to distancing itself from the initiative. These shifting national positions constrain the EU’s capacity for collective action. 

Long-term stability in the China-EU relationship cannot be built on defensive toolboxes, policy buzzwords, or reactive tariffs. It requires a policy that is coherent, consistent, and united.

Brussels’ fragmented approach to China, shaped by its de-risking strategy, proclaimed commitment to dialogue and divergent member state action, makes it difficult for Beijing to distinguish signal from noise. As long as China receives contradictory messages from a fractured bloc, it has very little incentive to make concessions on critical issues like rare earth export clearances or market access barriers.

A predictable, unified European policy is a viable foundation for the strategic confidence needed to move relations beyond this volatile inflection point. Only when Brussels establishes clear, consistent boundaries will Beijing be able to gauge Europe’s long-term strategic trajectory, creating the stable environment necessary for both powers to negotiate a much-coveted economic compromise.