Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico’s private polling shows his Texas race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton far closer than the high-profile public surveys that have handed him a lead, according to a report published Saturday.

A New York Times/Siena University poll in September and a CNN/SSRS poll conducted Oct. 20 to 27 showed Talarico ahead by 6 points, but other recent surveys put him either tied with Paxton or holding a 2-point lead inside the margin of error. The candidate’s internal numbers match those tighter surveys, people close to the campaign told the Times.

Those same people said the internal polling may not be fully capturing one bloc in particular. The surveys “may not be fully capturing the sentiments of rural conservative voters who support Mr. Trump,” the Times reported, citing people close to Talarico.

“I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning,” said Luke Warford, chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, who called even a coin-flip phenomenal for a Texas Democrat.

A Fox News survey in early October gave the Austin Democrat a 2-point edge, 51% to 49%, within the margin of error. A later Fox poll found the two tied at 49. Paxton drew his strongest support from rural voters, white evangelical Christians, and Texans 65 and older, the coalition Talarico’s own camp worries its internals may be missing.

The former middle-school teacher’s path also runs through Latino communities, where he will need heavy turnout. But Democrat canvassers in San Antonio and El Paso reported encountering abiding loyalty to Trump and an aversion to Talarico, particularly among Latino men, according to the Times.

The 37-year-old has spent the closing stretch trying to recast earlier statements he now calls “cringey” comments that God is “nonbinary” and that there are six biological sexes, that live on in opponents’ attack ads. People close to his campaign acknowledged enough Trump supporters remain in Texas to determine the outcome in Paxton’s favor, should they turn out.

The race, the most expensive non-presidential contest on record at more than $500 million in combined spending, follows the disclosure that Elon Musk routed $158 million to groups backing Paxton. Texans vote Tuesday.