From time to time, the debate over creating new provinces arises in Pakistani politics. This debate receives attention in the media for a while, only to fade away after some time as if it never existed. Consequently, the airtime for proponents of new provinces disappears as well. Some view this debate as a political gimmick designed to distract the public from the real issues facing the country, while others believe that influential figures operate behind the scenes to extract concessions from those in political power by stirring up this debate. It is indeed possible for a select few to hold power while others manipulate events from the sidelines in a hybrid democracy like Pakistan, which has experienced dictatorial rule for 34 of its 79 years of existence since 1947.

The debate of dividing the existing four provinces of Pakistan and creating new provinces has resurfaced once again after a statement made by Pakistani Interior and Narcotics Control Minister Mohsin Naqvi late last month. While addressing the first Pakistan Economic Summit in Islamabad, he said:

The system we are living under has collapsed. You have been dragging this system for 70 years, and while we all want democracy, there are many forms within democracy. Problems cannot be solved through the current dispensation. If this system continues, we will still be sitting here a decade from now discussing the same issues. The only solution is to take [the matter of] administrative units, provinces or whatever you may call it, to the public.

These remarks by a minister caused an uproar across the country, with some in favor of creating new provinces and other against. The minister’s own colleagues, including Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Prime Minister’s Advisor on Political and Public Affairs Rana Sanaullah, have not shown any particular support for the notion.

Sanaullah said the government has no plan at present regarding new provinces. He further added that different people are talking about different numbers of provinces; some suggest 12, others suggest 20, and some are even going further and suggesting 32 provinces be carved out of the current four provinces. He questioned anyone offering such suggestions without an actual plan.

Contrary to Sanaullah’s comments, Minister of State for Law and Justice Aqeel Malik confirmed the government’s intention to create new provinces. However, he said, “First, all political parties will be taken on board.”

There are political, constitutional, and legal hurdles to the creation of new provinces, which, as Dawn noted, “would have to be addressed through political consultation.” That may prove a problem for Pakistan’s current governing hybrid regime – also accused of a stolen mandate during the country’s last general elections in 2024. 

As Dawn reported:

There is also speculation that the government intends to introduce constitutional amendments to bypass a provision requiring the consent of the relevant provincial assembly when a new province is carved out of an existing one.

The Constitution also requires a two-thirds majority in parliament for such an amendment.

Political experts have speculated that the government may opt for a referendum on the creation of new provinces. However, they point out that even this would require parliamentary approval.

The current hybrid coalition of six political parties was given that necessary two-thirds majority by the Election Commission of Pakistan and a Supreme Court verdict last summer. The matter of new provinces has not yet been discussed in parliament, suggesting an effort to gauge the opinion of the masses before taking any serious steps. 

The debate seems to serve two major purposes for the country’s establishment: first, to divert attention from the unrest and tension in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, known in Pakistan as Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Balochistan; second, to tweak, if not entirely roll back, the Pakistani Constitution’s 18th amendment.

In June, a wave of protests unfurled in Azad Jammu and Kashmir against the reservation of 12 seats in the region’s legislature. The crisis exposed a long-running debate about political representation, resource allocation, governance and regional autonomy. In a crackdown against the protests, according to the Jammu Kashmir Human Rights Observatory, 89 people were killed during the unrest between July 27 and August 5, which brought global attention to Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Besides this issue, Balochistan continues to simmer with tension. In July, Balochistan replaced Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the country’s most violent province. The revived province debate may be meant to divert the public’s attention, and that of the media, from the unrest in both places.

The debate may also provide a pretext to tinker with the 18th amendment. The 18th amendment, passed in 2010, marked a pivotal transformation in the federal structure by significantly enhancing provincial autonomy. It reallocated 47 entries between federal and provincial jurisdictions and empowered provincial assemblies with greater legislative authority. It was also decided that in the National Finance Commission Award, 57.5 percent of the total proceeds would be horizontally distributed among the provinces, and the center (that is, the federal government) would keep 42.5 percent of the total divisible pool. The 18th amendment is at risk by the proposed 28th, which includes raising the voting age from 18 to 25, centralizing the creation of provinces, returning devolved subjects to the federal government, making the share of the NFC award flexible, and strengthening the local government system. 

Such an expansive amendment as proposed draws both support and opposition from different parties for different reasons, but the creation of new provinces will arguably meet strong opposition from the general population. This is especially true in a province like Sindh, where the issue is more sensitive than in other provinces. Sindh was the first province that adopted the historic Lahore Resolution in favor of the creation of Pakistan. According to the provincial assembly of Sindh’s website, “On 3 March 1943, the Sindh Assembly became the first legislature in British India to pass a resolution in favor of the creation of Pakistan, aligning with the Lahore Resolution of 1940.”

Traditionally, the social and political landscape of Sindh has been characterized by isolation from the power centers. Throughout Mughal rule in India, Sindh was a peripheral region because of its geographical location. However, it was due to Sindhi clans’ resistance and rebellion against the state’s attempts to impose heavy revenue demands that the Mughal system could not be applied in its entirety. Therefore, the socio-economic and political structure that developed in Sindh was different from the northern regions of Punjab and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), renamed as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under the 18th Amendment. Thus, Sindh was not simply an administrative territory that was created after the partition of the subcontinent. It was, rather, a historically constituted political unit that became part of the federation through a political process associated with the movement of Pakistan.

The creation of new provinces could lead to increased ethno-nationalist tensions. Any new provinces would have to be formed by dividing the existing ones, which many people find unacceptable. Pakistan’s social fabric is already significantly fractured due to various tensions, including those related to language, ethnicity, religious sects, political polarization, and economic inequality. The idea of establishing new provinces could further damage this already fragile social structure. A more viable solution to the shortcomings of the current system is to more fully implement the 18th amendment to the constitution and empower local bodies within the provinces.