Bersama’s first electoral test, in Johor on Saturday, will be watched less for the number of seats it wins than for the votes it might peel away from PH in multi-cornered contests, where analysts warn Bersama could act as a spoiler rather than a serious contender for power.

“For Bersama to make a difference in Johor by appealing to urban or semiurban Malay voters, yes they can do it, but they will have very minimal effect on the whole political scenario,” said Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research.

Johor voters were pragmatic, he said, adding that Bersama, in its current form, could not be considered a credible challenger to the more established parties because it lacked the strength to succeed without cooperating with major coalitions.

“If not, they are just a spoiler in the election,” he said.

The Johor state election promises to be a tough-fought contest between the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) bloc and PH. The two coalitions are allies at the federal level but are both fielding candidates for all 56 seats in Johor, while the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) is eyeing 33. Bersama is contesting 15.