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Key Facts
- —The crossover The USDA puts 2026/27 corn imports at 13.2 million tonnes, up 700,000 tonnes on the previous marketing year. Wheat imports are forecast to fall to 13 million tonnes from 15.5 million. The two marketing years are not identical: Egypt’s corn year runs October to September, its wheat year July to June.
- —What is driving it Animal feed accounts for more than 85% of Egypt’s corn consumption, with poultry the largest single user. Domestic production covers only about one-third of demand.
- —The scale of the livestock build-out Egypt produced 1.92 billion chickens and 16 billion table eggs in 2025, against roughly 1.4 billion birds and 14 billion eggs before 2023. Aquaculture now supplies about 80% of the country’s fish.
- —Where it ranks At 13.2 million tonnes Egypt would stay the world’s fifth-largest corn importer, behind Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Vietnam. It passed South Korea for fifth place in 2025/26.
- —The Brazilian share Brazil shipped 5.54 million tonnes of corn to Egypt between October 2025 and June 2026, on figures from Brazil’s foreign trade secretariat, well over half of Egypt’s purchases in the period. Brazilian shipments rose 80% year on year in 2024/25, to 6.5 million tonnes.
- —Argentina returning Argentina shipped 1.8 million tonnes of corn to Egypt in calendar 2025, worth US$377.5 million, and more than 2 million tonnes in the first five months of 2026 alone.
- —Still a forecast The figures come from the USDA’s 12 August 2026 update and can be revised. The USDA’s own Cairo office forecast corn imports at only 10.5 million tonnes in March. Nothing in the data changes Egypt’s subsidised bread programme, which runs on wheat.
Egypt corn imports are forecast to overtake wheat for the first time in 2026/27, at a record 13.2 million tonnes against 13 million tonnes of wheat, according to United States Department of Agriculture data updated on 12 August 2026. Brazil is expected to supply the largest share of that demand, with Argentina regaining ground.
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Why Egypt corn imports are passing wheat
Wheat has defined Egyptian grain buying for decades, because bread sits at the centre of both the diet and the subsidy system. Corn overtaking it is a change in what the country is feeding, not what its people are eating.
Since 2022/23 Egypt has more than doubled its corn purchases. The buyer is not the household but the feed mill, and behind the feed mill sit poultry farms and fish ponds that have absorbed heavy private investment.
Feed accounts for 17.4 million of the 20.1 million tonnes of corn the USDA expects Egypt to consume in 2026/27, with poultry the largest single user. Yellow corn is the main energy source in commercial poultry feed, so expansion translates almost mechanically into import demand.
A protein economy built in four years
The numbers show how quickly the build-out happened. Egypt produced 1.92 billion chickens and 16 billion table eggs in 2025, against roughly 1.4 billion birds and 14 billion eggs before 2023, on USDA figures.
Aquaculture has moved even further. It now accounts for about 80% of the country’s total fish supply, and feed demand from the sector is projected to pass two million tonnes by 2032.
The USDA dates the 1.4 billion baseline to the period before 2023, meaning most of the increase has come in three years. Domestic corn output covers only about a third of what all of this consumes.
The strategic reading is straightforward. Egypt has substituted imported grain for imported meat, which is cheaper in foreign currency terms but leaves the country structurally dependent on a different cargo.
Brazil is now the swing supplier to North Africa
This is where the story crosses the Atlantic. Brazil shipped 5.54 million tonnes of corn to Egypt between October 2025 and June 2026, on figures from Brazil’s foreign trade secretariat.
That extends a pattern from 2024/25, when Brazilian shipments to Egypt rose 80% year on year to 6.5 million tonnes and made up 61.5% of the country’s corn imports, on Brazilian customs data. Brazil is expected to capture much of the additional demand in 2026/27.
Argentina is coming back into the trade after four marketing years of decline. Argentina shipped 1.8 million tonnes of corn to Egypt in calendar 2025, worth US$377.5 million, and more than 2 million tonnes in the first five months of 2026 alone, worth US$437 million.
Ukraine remains Egypt’s second-largest corn origin over the past five years, at 11.7 million tonnes against Brazil’s 19.9 million, and the United States shipped 740,000 tonnes in 2024/25. But the centre of gravity has moved south.
A record Egyptian corn order is now, in practice, an order placed in Mato Grosso and Rosario.
What the shift changes for both sides
For Egypt the change alters the shape of its food-import risk rather than reducing it. Wheat buying is politically sensitive, but it is no longer mostly a state affair.
Private importers took 60% of Egypt’s wheat imports between July 2025 and January 2026, with the state buyer Mostakbal Misr, which replaced GASC in December 2024, handling the rest for the subsidised bread programme. That programme is unaffected by this forecast.
Corn buying is largely commercial and sits with feed millers, which makes it more responsive to price but also less protected when foreign currency tightens. Cairo has spent the past two years working to keep hard currency flowing.
Egypt was already Brazil’s second-largest corn destination in 2025, at 7.65 million tonnes or 18.7% of exports, behind Iran and well ahead of China on 1.86 million tonnes. It is also a market reached without transiting the Red Sea, which matters while shipping through Bab-el-Mandeb stays disrupted.
The caveats worth keeping
These are projections from the USDA’s August update, and monthly revisions can move them. A crossover of 200,000 tonnes between corn and wheat is well inside the range of a normal revision.
Wheat imports falling to 13 million tonnes also reflects better domestic production, not only substitution. Egypt remains the world’s largest wheat importer even at the lower figure, ahead of Indonesia on 12.5 million tonnes.
What is not in doubt is the direction of feed demand. Poultry and aquaculture capacity already built will need feeding whatever the exact tonnage turns out to be.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big are Egypt corn imports expected to be in 2026/27?
The USDA forecasts a record 13.2 million tonnes, up 700,000 tonnes on the previous marketing year. Wheat imports are projected to fall to 13 million tonnes from 15.5 million.
Why is Egypt buying more corn than wheat?
Poultry and aquaculture have expanded sharply and together account for more than 85% of Egypt’s corn consumption. Domestic corn production covers only about one-third of demand.
Which countries supply Egypt’s corn?
Brazil shipped 5.54 million tonnes of corn to Egypt between October 2025 and June 2026, on figures from Brazil’s foreign trade secretariat, well over half of Egypt’s purchases in the period. Ukraine and Argentina supply most of the remainder; the United States shipped 740,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
Does this affect Egypt’s subsidised bread?
No. The subsidised bread programme runs on wheat, and the forecast concerns feed corn bought largely by commercial feed millers.
Where does Egypt rank among corn importers?
At 13.2 million tonnes Egypt would remain the world’s fifth-largest corn importer, behind Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Vietnam. It overtook South Korea for fifth place in 2025/26.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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