12 hours ago
6
PROTECT YOURSELF with Orgo-Life® QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayCUBA · MIGRATION
Key Facts
- —What is happening Cubans filed 34,634 refugee claims in Mexico in 2025, more than any other nationality, while an unsourced estimate puts 20,000 to 25,000 Cubans as stranded in Tapachula.
- —Why it matters Mexico has become a holding area for Cubans who cannot get into the United States, where judges granted asylum in only 5.5% of cases decided in June 2026.
- —The numbers Cubans made up 49% of the 70,584 claims filed in Mexico in 2025, up 89% from 18,344 Cuban claims in 2024.
- —Who is who COMAR is Mexico’s refugee agency, part of the Interior Ministry, and the CNDH is Mexico’s state human rights commission, led by Rosario Piedra Ibarra.
- —What to watch Whether Mexico publishes a count of Cubans waiting in Chiapas, how fast COMAR decides claims, and whether the US vote on Tuesday, 3 November changes migrants’ plans.
- —Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you For US readers, fewer Cubans can reach the United States legally, so more wait in southern Mexico, which keeps pressure on the US border and on Mexico’s refugee system.
Mexico’s human rights commission counts Cubans as its largest group of refugee claimants. The estimate of 25,000 stranded in Tapachula has no named source.
Cubans filed 34,634 refugee claims in Mexico in 2025, more than any other nationality. That is 49% of all 70,584 claims filed that year, says Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission (CNDH).
Periódico Cubano, a Cuban news site, wrote on Thursday, 22 October that 20,000 to 25,000 Cubans remain stranded in Tapachula. It names no source for that range, and no official count was found.
What the Mexican Data Show
The CNDH took the figures from the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR) for a report dated Monday, 21 September. COMAR and the National Migration Institute (INM) together received 70,584 claims in 2025, down from 133,092 in 2021.
Cuba ranked third in 2023 with 18,501 claims and second in 2024 with 18,344. In 2025 it rose to first with 34,634, an increase of 89%.
Venezuela came second in 2025 with 14,324 claims, followed by Haiti with 9,090 and Honduras with 4,754. Total claims fell about 47% between 2021 and 2025, so the Cuban share grew while the overall pool shrank.
Why Cubans Get Stuck in Chiapas
The CNDH says COMAR was overwhelmed after US policy changes, including the end of CBP One, led waiting migrants to claim refuge. It describes “atrapamiento”, or entrapment, of people held in place for long periods against their will.
Claimants in the south, mainly in Chiapas and Tabasco, have had to stay in those states while their cases run. It also describes a revolving door: migrants are sent to Villahermosa, Tabasco, for exit papers and then meet the same officials again.
Mexican law gives claimants 30 working days from entry to file and requires COMAR to decide within 45 working days of filing. Periódico Cubano says answers can take months or years, but the CNDH report reviewed gives no decision times.
Periódico Cubano reported on 14 August that lawyer Irene Pascual said in TikTok that COMAR no longer believes Cubans’ stories. That is one lawyer’s view, and COMAR has not commented in the coverage reviewed.
The 20,000 to 25,000 Figure
The CNDH report does not count stranded Cubans, and its 34,634 claims cover all of Mexico over a single year. They are filings, not people currently waiting in Tapachula.
A caravan of about 600 people left Tapachula on Tuesday, 20 October, an earlier Rio Times report covered. The earlier report found that Mexican outlets did not confirm Cubans joined it, and only two Cuban news sites said they did.
Why the US Route Looks Harder
TRAC, an independent US immigration court data centre, says judges granted asylum in 5.5% of June 2026 cases and denied 94.1%. Only 771 people won asylum that month, TRAC said on Monday, 31 August.
For Cubans already in the US, the Cuban Adjustment Act green card route has almost stopped, an earlier Rio Times report noted. UnoTV reports, citing USCIS data, 139 approvals from April to June 2026 against 49,965 in the same quarter of 2024.
Cubans stranded in Mexico cannot use that route, which requires at least one year in the United States. It shows that the old path from Tapachula to Miami has narrowed at both ends.
What It Means for US Readers
Cubans are now Mexico’s largest group of refugee claimants, so Mexican decisions help decide who stays south of the US border. Cuban-American families in Florida face two bottlenecks at once, Mexican refugee status and US residency.
A guide to Cuba and US tensions and the Dignity Act proposal cover the US side. Mexico’s deportation figures and the Cuba hub add wider context.
What Is Not Known
No official count shows how many Cubans wait in Tapachula today. The 34,634 claims are filings over a year, not a head count of people now in the city.
The CNDH table gives claims filed, not how many COMAR approved or rejected. Neither COMAR nor the Interior Ministry has commented on the Periódico Cubano report in the coverage reviewed.
The claim that many stranded Cubans arrived with US humanitarian parole is also unsourced. Periódico Cubano makes it without evidence, and it could not be confirmed.
What Comes Next
US congressional elections take place on Tuesday, 3 November, and Periódico Cubano says some caravan marchers hope the vote eases entry rules. That claim is unverified, and the vote does not itself change US entry rules.
Watch for COMAR’s 2026 claim counts and any Mexican government response on Cubans in Chiapas. This does not mean 34,634 Cubans are in Tapachula today, or that COMAR has granted their claims.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Cubans asked for refuge in Mexico in 2025?
Cubans filed 34,634 claims, the most of any nationality and 49% of 70,584. The figures come from the CNDH, which cites COMAR data.
Are 25,000 Cubans stranded in Tapachula?
Periódico Cubano says 20,000 to 25,000 but names no source. No official count appears in the reports reviewed.
What is COMAR?
COMAR is Mexico’s refugee agency, part of the Interior Ministry. Mexican law says it must decide a claim within 45 working days.
Can Cubans in Mexico get a US green card under the Cuban Adjustment Act?
Not from Mexico, because the law requires at least one year in the United States. UnoTV, citing USCIS data, reports only 139 such approvals from April to June 2026.
How likely is asylum in US courts now?
TRAC says judges granted asylum in 5.5% of cases decided in June 2026. That is a national figure, not one for Cubans.
Sources: CNDH, Diagnóstico 2025 sobre las condiciones de las estancias y estaciones migratorias (dated 21 September 2026; COMAR data, Table 21); Ley sobre Refugiados, Protección Complementaria y Asilo Político, articles 18 and 24; TRAC, asylum denials release, 31 August; La Razón, 13 October; Excélsior, 14 October; Periódico Cubano, 22 October; Periódico Cubano on COMAR reviews, 14 August; UnoTV on USCIS Cuban Adjustment data, 19 October (all accessed 23 October 2026).
English (US) · 
French (CA) · 
French (FR) ·