The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has not been resolved, despite many countries close to both sides – including China, Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia – having tried their hand at de-escalating the situation. 

After Qatar, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia failed  to bring peace between the two neighboring countries, China ramped up its mediating efforts and brought both parties to the negotiating table earlier this month in Urumqi. Although Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi called the results of the Urumqi talks positive, the situation between Kabul and Islamabad has remained tense, casting doubt on Beijing’s influence in both countries. There have only been temporary ceasefires and no clear end to the conflict.

Russia is latest country to offer, however cautiously and conditionally, to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Given that previous efforts have not been able to deliver, Russia seems to be treading carefully. In mid-April, Russian Special Representative to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said that Moscow is ready to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan if asked by both countries. In a recent interview, Kabulov described the situation as “regrettable.”

Last month, Kabulov said that Russia was naturally concerned about the escalation between Kabul and Islamabad. He further said that even though the risks of a full-scale war between the two are “hypothetically significant,” it is unlikely to happen. “We would like to see a swift end to mutual attacks and a transition to detente in relations,” added Kabulov. He cautiously pointed toward Moscow playing a role in bringing peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan and said that “Russia would be willing to consider this option if both sides simultaneously approach it for mediation.” However, he added: “This has not happened yet, so we do not intend to force ourselves on them.” 

With regards to approaching Russia to mediate the conflict, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, confirmed that Pakistan has asked Russia to mediate the ongoing conflict. He further said that Islamabad was engaging with Moscow and appreciated the “wonderful offer” to resolve the conflict. Having said that, he took a gibe at the Taliban: “We tell all our interlocutors: please tell the Taliban (IEA) not to use this opportunity simply to regroup, recuperate, rearm, and re-attack.” He also added that “large states as Russia or Pakistan cannot be destabilized by terrorist acts.” 

Islamabad accuses the Taliban of harboring terrorist groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which pose a security threat to Pakistan. The Taliban deny the allegations and consider these groups Pakistan’s internal issues.

There have not been any solid reports indicating that the Taliban have approached Moscow to help mediate the conflict. While Russia’s increasing diplomatic engagement with the Taliban provides it with leverage to assume a mediating role, Moscow is cautious. Russia does not want to risk being seen as ineffective or failing, a risk if it inserts itself as a mediator without the invitation of both sides. Thus, it is likely that Moscow will await a formal request from the Taliban before playing any mediating role.

Russia’s concerns in the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan emerge from regional as well as its own internal security concerns. In 2025, Russia became the first country to accept the Taliban regime as the legitimate government in Afghanistan. Russia’s move was in line with its conflict against the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), against which Moscow considers the Taliban “objective allies.” The Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict would derail its attempts to tackle the ISKP threat, which simultaneously poses threat to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Russia.  

Besides security concerns, there are also economic implications for Moscow, which Kabulov also highlighted in his recent interview. He said that the situation has not only impaired security in the region but has put dents in regional economic projects, including the Trans-Afghan railway. “We are interested in Afghanistan’s transit potential, because through this route it is possible to access Pakistan’s ports and ultimately the Arabian Sea. If the two countries are in conflict, such projects will not be realized,” Kabulov noted. Similarly, the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan may further delay the connection of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative to Afghanistan via CPEC, which was discussed last year during the trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China in Kabul.

Additionally, Kabulov said that there is a possibility of establishing a quadrilateral format consisting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia and China, without sharing many details about the nature of the format. ISKP is a common threat for all four countries, including China as ISKP is recruiting Uyghur militants in Afghanistan. The four countries could jointly put efforts to tackle the menace of ISKP as well as other terror groups that have found a safe harbor inside Afghanistan. For that to happen, the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has to be amicably resolved; otherwise all four countries, along with other regional states, will have to bear the consequences. 

Russia, with its strengthened relations with Pakistan over the last decade and its newly found relations with the Taliban, could bring another strong party along with China to the negotiating table to mediate the conflict. But the question still remains: would Russia prove to be an effective mediator? Or it will end up like all other countries, including China, that have failed to bring the conflict to a concrete end?