On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders put Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning the presidency at 82.5% and Lula’s at 17.5% at 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday 25 October, with about US$199 million traded. On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the prices were 81% and 20%, which add to slightly more than 100% because of the spread between buy and sell prices.

These prices are bets, not polls and not results. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The figures are news sites’ sums of ballot-box reports, and their totals differ by the time of the count. Nothing here is confirmed by the electoral court, and results from Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States are not in the tallies we found.

It is also not known how overseas turnout compares with the first round. The national result comes only after polls in Brazil close at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília).

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the Brazil vote abroad?

Flávio Bolsonaro leads the early overseas tally with 52.66% of valid votes, driven by Japan, according to Exame. Lula leads in 30 places to 12, and the count is unofficial.

Why is Japan so important in the overseas count?

Japan has 88,366 registered voters, and Flávio Bolsonaro won 28,538 votes to 7,098 there. Exame says that is 62% of all his overseas votes, and Lula would lead without Japan.

Does the overseas vote predict who wins Brazil?

No. Brazilians abroad are about 0.6% of voters and lean differently by country. The national result comes from the electoral court’s count of the vote inside Brazil.

When do Brazilians in the US finish voting?

The last US and Canadian polls, in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Vancouver, close at 9 p.m. in Brasília, which is 8 p.m. ET. About 265,437 Brazilians are registered to vote in the United States.

Sources: Exame, who is winning abroad in the runoff, 25 October 2026, Metrópoles, partial overseas vote, 25 October 2026, Terra, overseas results by country, TSE, voters abroad, Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election. Opened on Sunday 25 October 2026. Figures are unofficial.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief