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Published Sunday, 25 October, 3:10 p.m. ET · Source: N1, a Belgrade news channel, and Kurir, a Serbian daily

Aleksandar Vučić, who leads the United Serbia list of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), said on Sunday he will accept defeat if voters reject him. N1 and Kurir report that he expects a first estimate around 22:00 to 22:30 CET (5:00 to 5:30 p.m. ET).

He spoke to reporters after voting in Belgrade in the early parliamentary election. We covered the build-up in our Sunday preview, the campaign ban before the vote, the 6.45 million voter register and the final opinion polls.

Vučić Promises to Accept the Result

N1 and Kurir, a Serbian daily, quoted him as saying: “You can win or lose elections.” He added that if his list loses, it will recognise the voters’ will, and if it wins, nobody will take the win away.

N1 reported that he waited about two hours in the queue at a polling station in New Belgrade, a district of the capital and voted with his wife. He also said Serbia is choosing between a future and a past of what he called looting privatisations and economic ruin.

Asked by foreign journalists, he said he would not be “the leader of the opposition.” He then said it would be clear that evening whether he is in opposition or in power.

File photo: Serbian flags at a night protest in central Belgrade.

First Estimate Expected Tonight

Vučić told reporters that voters should wait, and that he expects a preliminary estimate around 22:00 to 22:30 CET, according to N1 and Kurir. N1 quoted him as saying the estimate will be accurate whatever the outcome.

Kurir reported that he expects high turnout. Our latest turnout report has the figures from the monitoring group CeSID and the polling firm Ipsos.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Kalshi, the SNS-led list was priced at 57% to win and the student-protest list at 49% at 3:10 p.m. ET, with 101,875 contracts traded. On Polymarket, a global prediction market, the contract on Vučić’s United Serbia list to win the election priced at 53%, with US$8.48 million traded.

Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and all of these prices are bets, not polls. The contracts are priced separately, so they need not add to 100%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For readers in the United States, a leader who publicly commits to accepting a loss lowers the risk of a disputed result. The first estimate, due in about two hours, will show whether that pledge is tested.

If you plan to travel to Serbia, check your government’s travel advice before you go.

What Is Not Known

No result or projection has been published, and the winner and the size of any majority are unknown. The timing of the first estimate is Vučić’s expectation, not an official schedule, and other outlets have reported a slightly later window.

It is also unclear whether the student-protest list and other opposition parties will accept the first figures. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that runs the vote, has not yet released counts.

Sources

N1 · Kurir · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Kalshi · Polymarket

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Vučić accept defeat in Serbia’s election?

After voting in Belgrade, he said that if his list loses he will recognise the voters’ will. He added that if it wins, nobody will take the victory away.

When will Serbia’s first election estimate come?

According to N1 and Kurir, Vučić expects a preliminary estimate around 22:00 to 22:30 CET, which is 5:00 to 5:30 p.m. ET. Official counts from the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) follow.

Who is Aleksandar Vučić?

He heads the United Serbia list in the parliamentary vote and is a member of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

What do prediction markets say about the vote?

At 3:06 p.m. ET, Kalshi priced the SNS-led list at 57% and the student-protest list at 49% to win. These are bets, not polls.