NEW DELHI: Ahead of the crucial floor test for Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government in the Tamil Nadu assembly, the post-poll numbers game continues to shift by the day.While the elections were fought along conventional alliance lines, the fractured mandate has forced parties to explore new political equations.

The latest twist came when a faction of the AIADMK led by MLAs S P Velumani and C Ve Shanmugam announced support for the Vijay government.

Will AIADMK split?

After a meeting with senior party leaders and MLAs, Shanmugam said he would meet chief minister Vijay and hand over a letter extending support to his government."We founded this party against the DMK. For 53 years, our politics have been centred around opposing the DMK. A proposal was put forward suggesting an AIADMK government be formed with DMK support. However, the majority of our members rejected it," Shanmugam said.Velumani insisted the move did not amount to a split."This is not a breakup of AIADMK, but we will await the general secretary’s ‘right’ decision to take the party forward," he said.

He also alleged that AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami was keen to form a government with DMK support.“We opposed that decision since AIADMK was formed only to defeat the DMK,” he said.The internal rift had surfaced earlier when a group of AIADMK MLAs led by Shanmugam submitted a letter to pro tem Speaker M V Karuppaiah seeking Velumani’s appointment as legislature party leader.Some MLAs had also reportedly demanded Palaniswami’s resignation following the party’s poor performance in the polls.AIADMK contested 167 of the 234 constituencies but won just 47 seats.Following the results, Palaniswami held a series of meetings with party MLAs, but several senior leaders and former ministers, including Shanmugam and Velumani, stayed away.

What’s next for Vijay?

After Vijay took oath as chief minister, Governor R V Arlekar gave him three days to prove his majority on the floor of the House.In situations where no party has a clear majority and multiple claimants stake a claim to form the government, the governor may convene a special session to test who commands the confidence of the Assembly.If some legislators abstain or remain absent, the majority mark is determined based on the number of MLAs present and voting.TVK currently has 107 MLAs after Vijay resigned from the Tiruchirappalli East seat.The party already has the support of 13 legislators from the Congress, VCK, IUML and Left parties.Several of these parties, including VCK, IUML and the Left are part of the DMK-led alliance, while Congress, which has backed TVK, was previously allied with the DMK.A new era beginsEarlier on Monday, Vijay met DMK president and former chief minister M K Stalin at his Alwarpet residence in Chennai in what was officially described as a "courtesy call".He also met PMK president Anbumani Ramadoss as part of a high-profile outreach ahead of the May 13 floor test.How Vijay got the numbersVijay’s path to the majority mark of 118 has been anything but smooth.Congress was the first party to extend support, but its numbers alone were insufficient.

CPI, CPI(M), VCK and PMK kept TVK waiting for days before eventually backing the new government.Governor Arlekar was initially reluctant to invite Vijay to form the government, citing the absence of clear numbers. He had also asked Vijay to furnish a list of supporting parties and MLAs, triggering criticism from across the political spectrum.The breakthrough came when CPI and CPI(M), both part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, agreed to extend outside support to TVK.The parties said the move was necessary “to avert Governor’s Rule, prevent BJP from gaining room to enter the state, and protect secularism”.

VCK and IUML later followed suit, though all maintained they were not severing ties with the DMK.In a post-poll landscape where loyalties are fluid, Vijay’s ultimate test is still ahead.