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10-year Treasury yield climbs to 4.57% as jumping oil prices reignite inflation fears

1 week ago 6

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A screen displays U.S. President Donald Trump giving an interview with with CNBC at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, as a trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., Jan. 21, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday, led higher by soaring oil prices, after President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Turkey that he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is over.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was last seen more than 4 basis points higher at 4.571%.

Shorter- and longer-term yields also moved higher. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, was up by more than 4 basis points at 4.206%.

Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield, which traditionally moves on geopolitical events, climbed more than 2 basis points to 5.069%.

One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.

Trump's comments pushed oil prices higher, leading to worries of rising inflation and putting upward pressure on yields.

Oil prices remained higher after Trump later Wednesday threatened to strike Iran again after the U.S. attacked the country on Tuesday.

"I'll give them a little warning. We're going to hit them hard tonight," he said during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Brent crude futures, the international price benchmark, jumped 5.43% to close at $78.19 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were 4.37% higher, closing at $73.52.

As traders gauge how Trump's comments are likely to shape borrowing costs longer term, they are also digesting the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting, which was Chairman Kevin Warsh's first.

The minutes revealed a central bank that was divided on how to move forward with interest rates without more information on inflation.

"Many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year," the minutes stated. "Many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range."

The bond market saw minor reaction following the release.

 We wouldn't rule out rate hikes regardless of what happens with oil prices

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