(Analysis) A recent Genial/Quaest survey of Brazil’s federal representatives reveals a clear trend: most want former President Jair Bolsonaro to step aside and not run for president in 2026.

The poll, which included 203 members—about 40% of the Chamber—found that 51% believe Bolsonaro should abandon his candidacy. Only 23% think he should continue, while 26% did not express an opinion. The survey’s margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

Bolsonaro cannot run for office until 2030. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) barred him for eight years after finding him guilty of abusing political power and misusing media during his presidency.

He also faces criminal charges in the Supreme Federal Court for allegedly trying to overturn the 2022 election, with possible sentences totaling up to 43 years if convicted.

The survey highlights that the strongest rejection comes from the Centrão, a powerful bloc of centrist parties. Among members of this group, 78% want Bolsonaro to step aside. Even among right-wing politicians, half believe he should not run.

Why Most Brazilian Lawmakers Want Bolsonaro Out of the 2026 Race. (Photo Internet reproduction)

These numbers show that Bolsonaro’s legal problems and political fatigue have weakened his support, even among former allies. With doubts about Bolsonaro’s future, attention is shifting to São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.

Nearly half of the respondents now see Tarcísio as the main opposition candidate for 2026. Tarcísio, a former infrastructure secretary, has high approval ratings in São Paulo and appeals to business and centrist voters.

However, some Bolsonaro loyalists remain skeptical, seeing him as less committed to the core values of “Bolsonarismo.” Other names, such as Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, are also mentioned as possible candidates.

Michelle leads the Liberal Party’s women’s wing and has built her own political base, especially among evangelical voters. Still, Tarcísio and Michelle both trail President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first-round polling scenarios, though they close the gap in potential runoffs.

This shift matters for several reasons. The uncertainty around Bolsonaro’s candidacy affects political alliances, campaign strategies, and voter expectations.

The enforcement of electoral laws and court decisions in such a high-profile case sets important precedents for future elections. The right-wing in Brazil now faces a crossroads: rally behind a new leader or risk fragmentation.

For voters and businesses, these developments will shape the choices available in the next presidential election and influence the country’s direction on economic, security, and social policies.