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Warnings for rain ahead of a possible third heatwave

1 week ago 1

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Blue sky peeking through dark ominous clouds over a hilly landscapeImage source, Southern Landscapes via Getty

Matt Taylor

Lead Weather Presenter

Parts of the UK could experience an third heatwave in the space of a month later next week.

This will follow a comparatively cool and changeable weekend, in which many areas will see rain at times.

For some, expected rainfall amounts between now and Saturday afternoon are enough to prompt the issue of a weather warning.

Where are there weather warnings?

With low pressure passing the north of Scotland over the next few days, weather fronts are expected to sweep southwards across the UK. These will linger longest across northern areas, with rainfall totals enhanced on western hills by strong to gale force winds.

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for rain across parts of Argyll and Bute, the southern Highlands, Mull and Skye. It's valid until 15:00 (BST) on Saturday.

It warns of 40 to 60mm (1.6 to 2.4in) of rain quite widely within these areas, and possibly over 100mm (4in) in some of the mountains. This could lead flooding and travel disruption, as well as possible interruption to power supplies. Winds of 40 to 50mph (64 to 80km/h) will make for difficult travel conditions too.

Map of the Met Office yellow warning for rain, from 6am Friday to 3pm Saturday. Area covers much of Argyll and Bute, the southern Highlands, Mull and Skye

Image caption,

Over 100mm (4in) of rain is possible within the Met Office warning area

Sunshine and showers for the rest of the UK

This weekend comes with a bit of a reality check for those who experienced heatwave conditions for the last two weekends.

With an area of low pressure still close to the UK winds will swing round to come from a more northerly direction. This will make it feel comparatively cool by Sunday, with temperatures peaking in the high teens or low twenties Celsius instead of the low thirties of last weekend.

However, these sorts of temperatures are much closer to the long-term average for this time of year than we have seen recently.

Low pressure also means that showers are possible just about anywhere throughout the weekend, with some seeing more than others. In contrast to the rain totals we will see in western Scotland, some areas of central and southern England, where rain has been lacking over recent months, may only receive 1 to 3mm (under 0.2in).

It will not be a washout of a weekend though. All areas will see some sunshine at times too, especially on Sunday.

Dark clouds behind a hill and wind turbineImage source, BBC WeatherWatchers/PhotosDaft

Image caption,

Rain clouds and a cooler breeze will feature at times this weekend in most areas

When could we see another heatwave?

June was the hottest on record across England, according to the Met Office, with statistics boosted by two heatwaves during the second half of the month.

The temperature peaked during the first heatwave with a high of 33.2C recorded at Charlwood, Surrey on the 21 June. Little over a week later, on the 30 June both Jersey and Heathrow airports hit 33 Celsius, only to be exceed on the 1 July as St James's Park, London reached 34.7C. Heat health alerts were issued by the UK Health Security Agency widely across England to help prepare health and social services for an expected increase in demand.

Some weather computer models are now showing that later next week it's possible that some areas could experience their third heatwave in four weeks.

Spectators in the sunshine watching tennis at Wimbledon's Court OneImage source, BBC WeatherWatchers/Jam-Jam

Image caption,

The Wimbledon Championships recorded the hottest opening day in its history as temperatures hit 32C on 30 June

Given we are talking about the second half of next week and beyond, a long time off when it comes to the weather, there are question marks over who will see any potential heatwave, how hot it will get and how long it will last.

At the moment, like in the previous heatwaves, computer models are pointing to parts of central and eastern England seeing the highest temperatures. Some suggest we could again achieve temperatures around the 30C mark, possibly even higher. Much of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland however, are likely to be well below this.

Some of the heat potential may already be showing up in the longer-term forecasts on your weather app and online, but it is worth treating the forecasts with caution for now.

Changes in weather patterns to the west of the UK could disrupt the build of high pressure and southerly airflow that would help boost heat across eastern areas. A shift of wind direction or greater likelihood of cloud and showers would therefore limit the temperature rise.

Your BBC weather teams across the UK will keep you updated on any changes through the days ahead.

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