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Thank you for joining our live coverage of the war in the Middle East. Our blog has closed for the day but will return tomorrow morning.
Here’s what we covered today:
- US President Donald Trump says it’s “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran if a deal is not reached before it ends on Wednesday (US time). “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal,” Trump said in a phone interview with Bloomberg.
- Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation, which will likely leave late Monday or early Tuesday (US time), for a second round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan.
- Although the Islamic Republic has not publicly committed to attending the talks, The Wall Street Journal reported it would send a delegation.
- Three vessels – two cargo ships and a fuel tanker – appeared to be trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday afternoon (AEST) as US and Iranian blockades remained in place.
- Disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran war has added more than $145 to the price of long-haul flights from Europe – a cost likely to trigger higher ticket prices, says the campaign group, Transport & Environment.
- Israeli and Lebanese representatives will hold a second round of talks in Washington on Thursday, the US State Department has confirmed. It will mark the first talks between the two countries since a 10-day ceasefire took effect last week.
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Iran will respond decisively to any renewed attacks, commander says
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Iran’s armed forces are ready to deliver an “immediate and decisive response” to any renewed hostile action by its adversaries, a senior Iranian military commander said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States is set to expire on Wednesday (US time). The two countries have accused each other of breaching the ceasefire and have both tightened control over Gulf maritime transit.
Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said Tehran retained the upper hand in the military field, including in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and would not allow US President Donald Trump to “create false narratives over the situation on the ground”.
Reuters
ASX flat as investors watch peace negotiations
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The Australian sharemarket swung between small gains and losses today to close almost unchanged, as investors await progress on a further round of peace talks between the US and Iran after the latest rise of tensions in the Middle East, which sent Wall Street lower overnight.
The S&P/ASX 200 finished down 3.9 points at 8949.40, with five of its 11 industry sectors in the green. The local bourse had inched up 0.1 per cent on Monday, treading water amid cautious hopes for a negotiated settlement of the war before the end of a ceasefire early on Thursday AEST. The Australian dollar slipped 0.2 per cent to US71.63¢ as of 4.22pm AEST.
Energy stocks were the biggest weight on the market as oil prices eased on signs that Iran would attend negotiations with the US in Islamabad before the ceasefire ends. West Texas Intermediate for June fell 1.4 per cent to around $US88 a barrel, while Brent dropped 0.9 per cent to $US94.58 by the time the ASX finished trading. Local oil and gas giants Woodside and Santos were down 1.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, and refiner Ampol dropped 0.9 per cent.
However, coal producers jumped as alternative providers of fossil fuel, with Yancoal and Whitehaven Coal each gaining 3.8 per cent.
US President Donald Trump signalled he was unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire with Iran, while Iran had yet to confirm it would participate in talks to end a war that has engulfed the Middle East and upended global trade.
US never been closer to a good deal, says Leavitt
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says US President Donald Trump has “never been so close” to striking a peace deal with Iran, as negotiations between the warring nations are set to resume in Pakistan this week.
“The facts are the United States of America tonight have never been so close to making a truly good deal — unlike the horrific deal signed by Barack Hussein Obama — than we are right now,” she said on Fox News.
“Thanks to the success of the military operation and his [the president’s] hardline negotiating style, we’re on the brink of a deal.
“And if not, the president, as commander in chief, still has a number of options at his disposal that he’s unafraid to use.”
Jet fuel price surge adds $145 to long-haul flight
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Disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran war has added more than $145 to the price of long-haul flights from Europe – a cost likely to trigger higher ticket prices, campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E) said.
The rise in jet fuel prices has increased the average fuel cost by €88 ($145) for each passenger on long-haul flights leaving Europe and €29 ($48) on flights within Europe, T&E said.
Its analysis compared prices as of April 16, with those just before the US and Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
European airlines are preparing for a challenging spring and summer, with jet fuel prices having risen to well over $US100 ($139) a barrel since the Iran war began and concern growing that shortages could lead to flight cancellations.
T&E calculated the average fuel burn on all flight routes departing from Europe, and divided this by the number of departing passengers, to calculate how much the fuel price spike would add to the cost per person.
Reuters
Asian shares mixed, oil prices slip as US-Iran talks in doubt
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Shares are mixed in Asia and oil prices have slipped following the latest rise of US-Iran tensions.
The lacklustre start to trading Tuesday followed a modest retreat on Wall Street.
On Monday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent from its all-time high, and the Dow industrials edged less than 0.1 per cent lower.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil remains above $US95 ($132).
Three ships attempt transiting Hormuz
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Three vessels – two cargo ships and a fuel tanker – appeared to be attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday afternoon (AEST) as US and Iranian blockades remained in place.
The Shoja 2, an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, crossed the strait and moved into the Gulf of Oman, but has since stopped signalling its location. The progress of the ship is being closely watched after the US Navy seized another Iranian cargo ship on Sunday – the first capture since the Trump administration imposed a blockade of the waterway last week.
The other two vessels have no clear links to Iran. The Lian Star, a general cargo ship flagged to The Gambia, has crossed the strait and is now turning south towards the Gulf of Oman. The Ean Spir, a medium-range tanker with no identified owner, began sailing north-east from waters near Ras Al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, and is now south of Larak island, indicating Shinas in Oman as its destination.
Otherwise, traffic through the vital waterway remained at a virtual standstill following a chaotic weekend in which Iran declared the corridor open before closing it again after the US declined to lift its blockade. Around 800 vessels remain stuck in the Persian Gulf.
President Donald Trump said on Monday that the American blockade would remain in place for now. The US leader said a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which expires Wednesday evening (Washington time), was not likely to be extended. Talks between the two countries are expected to take place in Pakistan.
Bloomberg
Labor must make exploring for gas and oil easier: opposition leader
By Brittany Busch
Opposition leader Angus Taylor says the government needs to provide greater incentives for private companies to explore and drill for oil in Australia amid the global oil shock sparked by the Iran war.
“Whether it’s existing basins where there’s more potential, or new basins, like the Taroom or the Beetaloo, we know they are there, but we’ve got to get the incentives right to get those explorers out there exploring to get the oil and gas companies drilling and to make sure Australian oil and gas is working hard for Australians,” the opposition leader told reporters in Western Australia.
“The best stock of fuel is the stock of fuel that you can be taking out from under the ground ... that’s not 30 days of stocks. That’s 30 years plus of stocks.”
Vance to represent US in reprised Pakistan peace talks: report
By Angus Delaney
US Vice President JD Vance will represent America in renewed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad this week, Axios reported.
Vance will arrive in Pakistan with the fragile US-Iran ceasefire about to expire, sources told Axios, and despite a complete deal being unlikely before the deadline, President Donald Trump could be convinced to extend the truce if progress is made.
Iran has not formally said whether it will attend the negotiations, after the last round proved fruitless.
Trump says Iran will struggle to dig up bombed nuclear sites
By Angus Delaney
US President Donald Trump said American bombers completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear sites last year, and it will take the Islamic Republic a long time to restore them.
In June last year, US soldiers dropped immense bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s secretive nuclear sites aiming to completely disable them.
“Operation Midnight Hammer was a complete and total obliteration of the Nuclear Dust sites in Iran,” Trump said on Truth Social this afternoon. “Therefore, digging it out will be a long and difficult process.
“Fake News CNN, and other corrupt Media Networks and Platforms, fail to give our great aviators the credit they deserve – Always trying to demean and belittle – LOSERS!!!”
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