File photo from 2004: a tanker at the Al Basrah Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf, with a US Navy ship in the distance. photo, 2004: tanker at Iraq's Al Basrah Oil Terminal. Photo: U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 1st Class David C. Lloyd, public domain.

IRAN · STRAIT OF HORMUZ · PREDICTION MARKETS

Traders now see a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the year as a long shot. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, a “Yes” on a deal by 31 December costs about 18.5 cents, down from about 35.5 cents a week ago and 3 points in the past 24 hours.

It matters to US readers because the strait is the sea lane through which Gulf oil and gas reach world markets. A low price shows traders putting little money on a quick end to the standoff.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket asks, “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?” Its rules say the market resolves to “Yes” if “a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.”

The agreement must set Iranian commitments “aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic” through the strait. Both countries must announce that they accept the same deal, and separate statements of individual policies do not count.

• 31 December: 18.5% “Yes”, down 3.0 points in 24 hours and 17.0 points in seven days; about US$6,500 traded in 24 hours and about US$770,000 on the line in total.
• 30 November: 6.5% “Yes”, down 2.0 points in 24 hours and 10.0 points in seven days; about US$12,400 traded in 24 hours and about US$934,000 in total.

Trading in the past 24 hours was below US$50,000 on both lines, so the market is thinly traded and a few bets can move it. Kalshi, the exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), we found no matching contract there, so these prices come from Polymarket alone.

Read on 14 November 2026, 5:37 p.m. ET (22:37 UTC). These are bets, not polls, and a price can reverse within hours.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why the Odds Moved

No single trigger was reported for the fall, and we do not claim one. The price slid from about 35.5% to 18.5% over the week while both governments restated hard positions.

• Monday 9 November: President Donald Trump met Qatar’s prime minister at the White House. Qatar is a key mediator, according to Al Jazeera, a Qatar-based news network, on 11 November.
• Tuesday 10 November: Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s security chief, said Tehran is still waiting for a “clear” US reply to its seven conditions. He called reports of continued talks “a pure lie” and said the strait stays shut until all seven are met.
• By 11 November: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait could reopen within two days if Iran’s demands are met. Al Jazeera reported that the demands include lifting sanctions, ending the US blockade and ending the fighting on all fronts, especially Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
• Thursday 12 November: Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social, “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money,” NPR, the US public radio network, reported on 14 November.
• Friday 13 November: Iranian media said the US struck an Iranian island in the strait, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, its elite military force, said it hit a US early-warning radar in Bahrain, NPR reported.

The price fell in the same days as these statements, but no report links the two, so treat them as context, not as a cause. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called Iran’s conditions “absurd,” NPR reported.

Shipping risk is real. Al Jazeera reported at least 37 attacks on ships in and near the strait in October, the highest monthly total since the war began.

What It Means for US Readers

A 18.5% price means traders see little chance of a quick deal that reopens the strait on Iran’s terms or America’s. For US drivers, airlines and oil-linked investors, that points to continued tension in the oil price, though a price in a prediction market is not a forecast of fuel costs.

The US naval blockade has cut Iran off from at least US$25 billion in revenue, according to the US military, NPR reported. Trump has said Gulf Arab allies prefer the status quo of economic pressure.

For US policy, the next checkpoints are the 30 November and 31 December expiry dates of the two lines, and any reply from Washington to Tehran’s seven conditions. Our earlier reports track the same story: Hormuz deal odds on 31 October and US-Iran meeting odds on 9 November.

What It Means for Latin America and Africa

Brazil and Nigeria export crude oil, so their budgets and currencies react when Gulf tension moves the oil price. See our oil coverage on Brent and Nigeria and the Oil Wrap of 12 November.

NPR noted that the US-escorted route along Oman’s coast does not restore pre-war output of liquefied natural gas, fertiliser and aluminium. Importers in Latin America and Africa buy such goods, but we found no reported estimate of the effect on any single country this week.

What Is Not Known

We do not know what moved the price this week, and we found no reported negotiating step that explains it. We also do not know whether the US has answered Iran’s seven conditions, because Rezaei says no clear reply has come and Trump says no deal is needed.

The market cannot tell us whether a deal would actually reopen the strait, only whether one is announced under Polymarket’s rules. With about US$6,500 traded on the 31 December line in 24 hours, the level is a signal of mood, not a measured probability.

See also our Prediction Markets hub, the Latin America odds and the Africa odds pages.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Hormuz deal odds?

They are Polymarket prices on whether the US and Iran announce a deal that restores shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by a set date. On 14 November the 31 December price was 18.5%.

Why did the odds fall?

No single trigger was reported. The price fell 17 points in a week while Iran said the strait stays shut until its seven conditions are met and Trump said the US does not need a deal.

Does 18.5% mean a deal is unlikely?

Not exactly. A price is a bet, not a forecast, and this line is thinly traded, with about US$6,500 changing hands in 24 hours.

What would count as a deal?

Polymarket requires an announced diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran that commits Iran to permit or restore shipping, accepted publicly by both countries.

Is Kalshi offering the same bet?

We found no matching Kalshi contract. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, but these prices come from Polymarket alone.

Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 14 November 2026, 5:37 p.m. ET); Polymarket market rules for “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by…?”; Al Jazeera, 11 November 2026; NPR via OPB, 14 November 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error