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Ohio and Michigan, where two of the fiercest Senate campaigns are playing out, are among Canada’s top five U.S. trading partners, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

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Democrats likely need to hold on to the Michigan Senate seat to win Senate control. Picking up the Ohio seat, now held by Republican Jon Husted, would be a major victory for the party in a state that has consistently skewed more conservative in recent elections.

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Business owners in those states said they would feel an impact if these tariffs take hold.

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Trump’s vow to double Canadian auto tariffs starting Jan. 1 would rattle the nations’ deeply integrated automotive industries, as Canadian parts used in Michigan auto plants could become more expensive.

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A fan of Trump, Michael Neros of Michigan nonetheless would like to see the president scale back some of his efforts abroad and refocus on the U.S. Neros, who operates a sales firm that represents furniture manufacturers to retailers, said he isn’t hearing of major tariff effects on his industry but is a little concerned about their impact on his state’s auto sector.

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“He is trying to keep America first. He has to wrap this up over the next 30 days and try to get a better direction as we head into midterms,” Neros said in an interview. “In terms of tariffs, in terms of this Gulf war, there are a couple pivotal points here that need to be addressed.”

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The homebuilding industry could also see a hit, which could add to the frustration of Americans already struggling to afford home purchases.

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“If all of a sudden, here comes legit news that we have another 50 per cent tariff on lumber, man, that’ll shut things down pretty quickly in terms of homeowners, and builders, developers. Just slowing down and putting the brakes on,” said John Daniels, co-owner of Chelsea Lumber, a lumberyard operator in southeastern Michigan.

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U.S. customers will have to decide in the next few weeks whether to load up at the Canadian mills to take advantage of lower prices, or hold off. Few buyers are in a position to “eat” the added costs from tariffs, Daniels said, so ultimately they would have to pass the costs on to homebuilders.

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Janine Bisaillon-Cary, president of the Montserrat Group, an international consulting firm in Portland, Maine, said Canadians are usually the first customers when Mainers look to trade internationally. Major blueberry growers have operations on both sides of the border, while Maine seafood companies import and export to Canada.

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“I don’t think I have ever seen a politician in the state of Maine saying that Canada wasn’t important to us,” she said. “I will watch carefully what different politicians’ positions are on tariffs, because I think they can be very detrimental to our state and national economy.”

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Bisaillon-Cary declined to say who she might vote for in the midterms, but did say she’s a centrist whose voting has leaned Democrat recently.

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Democrats, who are increasingly bullish about their chances in the Senate, are highlighting Trump’s efforts as evidence Republicans are not in touch with Americans’ priorities.

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In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said on X: “Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity. Even before this new round, Canadian tariffs were costing Michigan families an additional US$3,200 a year. It’s going to get much worse.”

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His opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, has not commented. But some Senate candidates have spoken against Trump’s trade moves as they try to appeal to voters frustrated over the cost of living and challenges of running a business.