As US President Donald Trump weighs putting 'boots on the ground' in Iran there are dire warnings he could escalate the conflct into a bloody and prolonged war like Vietnam or Afghanistan

Purely in military terms the result of the war in Iran so far for the US and Israel is positive. But US President Donald Trump appears to be making the crucial mistake of escalating his way out of a mess of his own making. An Iranian foreign official has declared it could result in a new Vietnam-style war for the US.

And at least one senior US military source says this could result in “Iraq times 20” - a reference to the near nine year conflict that cost more than a million Iraqi lives and those of thousands of coalition troops, including 457 UK military personnel. Now Trump is sending up to 5,000 marines, possibly to take the strategically important Kharg Island, 300 miles from the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

This is the narrow ‘choke point’ passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, through which usually 20% of the world's daily oil supply usually passes. It is blocked by Iranian missile threats and Tehran always knew crippling the passage of oil supplies would hit world economies.

Bogging forces down in an operation to free up the Strait could be hugely costly in terms of casualties and resources. When asked about the possibility of US troops on the ground, the message from Iran's deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh was: "Just read what happened in Vietnam."

Already Israeli officials are warning these attacks have begun. This morning, according to the think tank Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre Amichai Chikli, Israel’s Minister for Diaspora Affairs says Iranian proxy group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI), was responsible for a series of attempted bombings at Jewish community sites in Belgium and in the Netherlands.

Last week, explosions and arson attacks took place at synagogues and a school in Liege, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam, low-grade attacks but they could be the start. It means the war could go on for months or worse for years with missile attacks and global terrorism.

Even though the Iraq war ended 15 years ago the bloodthirsty terror network Islamic State that it spawned still exists and it is still a major threat to countries such as the UK. On the face of it the US-Israel attacks are winning - but are they really? The ability of Tehran’s command structure to fire drones and missiles has been degraded and its nuclear ambitions are under rubble, the condition of its enriched uranium unknown.

Most of Iran’s missile launchers have been hit but thousands of short-range weapons and drones still exist. According to Israel Tehran’s key security official Ali Larijani has been killed. And the head of Tehran’s Basij policing force Gholamreza Soleimani has also died in a strike. But they will be replaced, according to Iran’s pre-arranged plan immediately to replace leaders if they are killed.

We do not know if Motjaba Khamenei, the Ayatollah’s son and heir, is dead but he is likely seriously wounded, even though statements apparently from him are being released. Earlier today one said he had rejected any suggestion of ending the war. And the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is becoming ever more strategically controlling in the Tehran hierarchy, the clerical leadership being slowly less important.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War says: “The United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war — drone and missile attacks — which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy. Iran has still done some damage to US forces, and it is still firing drones and missiles, though the overall attack rate is slowly decreasing.

These attacks still pale in comparison to the major attacks Iran sought to conduct in an existential war and have caused neither operationally significant damage nor widespread casualties.” But the war is entering a new phase and the IRGC will be looking to entrench the US and its allies in a costly conflict which may be immensely tricky to withdraw from.