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Stock market outlook: Fed policy, crude oil prices and Q1 earnings to drive trade

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 Fed policy, crude oil prices and Q1 earnings to drive trade

Markets are set for another volatile week after Dalal Street ended the previous one in red. Investors are set to track developments in the Middle East, fluctuations in crude oil prices and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting, while a busy earnings season is expected to drive stock-specific movements.Apart from global developments, investors will also watch the release of June Industrial Production (IIP) data for signals on the domestic economy.Ajit Mishra, SVP, research, Religare Broking Ltd, said geopolitical developments and energy markets would continue to shape investor sentiment."Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, and movements in crude oil prices will remain key drivers of global risk sentiment.

In addition, investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where interest rate guidance and commentary on inflation will be critical for global markets," he said.He added that June IIP data would also be on investors' radar during the week.Alongside macroeconomic developments, a host of heavyweight companies are set to announce their quarterly results, making earnings another major trigger for the markets.

Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said the results calendar includes Coal India, BEL, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, ITC and Sun Pharma.According to analysts, investors will closely scrutinise the US Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation and growth, particularly after higher crude oil prices reignited concerns over the global inflation outlook."Investor attention in the week ahead is expected to remain firmly anchored on developments in the Middle East, with the escalating conflict between the US and Iran continuing to dominate global market sentiment. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has revived concerns over inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy, keeping investors in a defensive, risk-averse stance," Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money told PTI.He noted that although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, markets will be paying greater attention to its policy guidance."More important than the rate decision itself will be the Federal Reserve's assessment of the inflation outlook, economic growth and the likely trajectory of monetary policy over the coming quarters," Ponmudi added.The broader market ended last week under pressure, with BSE Sensex dropping 2,091.68 points, or 2.67%, while the NSE Nifty lost 566.85 points, or 2.32%.

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