Sri Lanka’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.3, according to the latest census. This is lower than that of non-Hispanic whites in the United States. This is a drastic drop since 2016, when the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) reported a TFR of 2.2 live births per woman.

However, the decline should not have come as a surprise. Births in Sri Lanka have collapsed following the 2022 economic crisis. There were 171,140 marriages registered in 2022, which fell to 139,290 in 2024. There were only 220,761 live births in 2024, a steep drop-off from 301,706 in 2022. Taking these vital statistics into consideration, demographers Indralal de Silva and Ranjith de Silva in 2025 predicted that Sri Lanka was on the verge of entering ultra-low fertility, typically defined as a TFR below 1.3. The census has vindicated the two researchers.

Declining TFR is a pattern we see globally. According to demographers, low fertility numbers will be the norm as the world goes through the Second Demographic Transition (SDT), which is marked by later marriage, delayed childbearing, smaller families, and fertility dropping below replacement level.

Sri Lanka’s TFR is significantly low compared to its neighbors, with whom it shares many similarities. TFR in India was 1.9 in 2023. Nepal recorded similar numbers in the same year.  FDR in the Maldives was 1.7. Pakistan and Bangladesh have TFRs that are above replacement.

Many factors affect fertility in a country, and usually it’s impossible to nail it down to one or two reasons. But in the case of Sri Lanka, the drop in fertility can be narrowed down to the 2022 economic crisis. In April 2022, Sri Lanka declared a sovereign debt default, and inflation reached 70 percent while real wages, for most people, stagnated. The economic crisis also compelled Sri Lankans to take up foreign jobs – over 300,000 have done so each year since 2022, and most of those who leave are in their reproductive years.

The Mood of the Nation survey by Verité Research showed that in January 2022, the respondents’ confidence in the economy was negative 83. This further deteriorated to -96 in June 2022. Only 6 percent expressed satisfaction in the way things were going in Sri Lanka in January 2022, and this dropped to just 2 percent in June 2022. In October 2023, economic satisfaction was -62 and only 6 percent were happy about the way the country was going. Only 5 percent were happy with the way things were going as late as February 2024, and only 9 percent thought the economic conditions were getting better. With such a gloomy outlook, it is no wonder that most Sri Lankans decided to delay childbirth. It was only after the National People’s Power (NPP) came to power that around 60 percent of the people were satisfied with the economic outlook and how things were unfolding in the country.

However, it is unlikely that Sri Lanka’s TFR will reach anywhere close to replacement levels even though people’s economic satisfaction and optimism about the country have improved. The 2022 crisis has permanently rewired how Sri Lankans think about having children, in a way that may be impossible to reverse.

In his Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), demographer Icek Ajzen argued that childbearing depends on three things: attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Even if people feel more optimistic compared to the worst period of the crisis, all three of these are still likely to remain weak in ways that discourage a return to replacement-level fertility.

According to TPB, childbearing is shaped by whether people think a child will improve or worsen their lives. After an economic crisis that ushered in high and prolonged inflation, wage stagnation, out-migration, etc., many couples are likely to see childbearing as financially risky even if the economy stabilizes.

As things stand, subjective norms now favor delay or not having children at all. According to Ajzen, when deciding on whether to have children, people are influenced by what important people in their lives expect of them and by what people like them are doing. When births and marriages fall sharply, postponing childbirth or not having children at all stops being exceptional and becomes the norm. People may now feel more optimistic, but will not reverse a social pattern.

Most importantly, perceived behavioral control is likely to remain low. According to TPB, perceived behavioral control means whether a woman/couple feel she/they can realistically have a child now and still manage everything that comes with it. The Sri Lankan economy has stabilized, but little has been done to make parenthood feel easy or secure. Jobs remain unstable due to AI and the conflict in West Asia, wages lag behind living costs, housing remains expensive, care work falls mainly on women, most private and public sector jobs do not offer flexible working hours or paternal leave, and large numbers of young adults continue to migrate abroad. These are factors that make couples feel they do not have enough control over the conditions needed for childbearing.

In fact, after a severe crisis, recovery can strengthen postponement rather than reverse it, because people may use the period of stabilization to rebuild savings, re-establish careers, or migrate, instead of immediately starting families.

So, Sri Lankan fertility is unlikely to rise sharply because attitudes remain cautious, norms increasingly support postponement, and perceived control over the practical conditions of parenthood remains weak. That combination makes a sustained return to replacement-level fertility very unlikely. It is time Sri Lanka prepares for the consequences of sustained low fertility rates.