Dalal Street is expected to open on a positive note Thursday, with GIFT Nifty futures rising 38 points to 25,298.50 on the NSE IX, tracking strong global cues and cooling geo-political concerns. The tone remains constructive, supported by easing tensions in the Middle East, a softer dollar, and encouraging trends across Asian equities.

Global relief as Israel-Iran ceasefire holds

Markets took a sigh of relief after a tentative truce between Israel and Iran. This has not only lifted equities globally but also led to risk-on sentiment among investors. US markets ended mixed overnight as traders assessed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, while Asia is largely in the green.

• Japan’s Topix was up 0.2 per cent

• Hang Seng futures slipped 0.6 per cent

• Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.2 per cent

• S&P 500 futures flat in early Asian trade

Oil prices extended gains due to a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, reflecting strong demand. Brent crude hovered near the $85 per barrel mark. Gold prices also nudged higher as the dollar weakened, hitting a 3.5-year low against the euro.

Tech view

Nifty ended higher on Wednesday and is expected to test 25,350 if the uptrend sustains. Analysts peg immediate support at 25,000 — any breach below this could drag the index toward 24,850. As long as Nifty trades above 25,000, sentiment is likely to favour long trades. The India VIX dropped 5% to 12.97, reflecting reduced fear in the market.

FII-DII flows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 2,427 crore in the cash market on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 2,373 crore - nearly neutralising the outflows. Meanwhile, FIIs pared their net short positions in index futures from Rs 1.09 lakh crore to Rs 1.06 lakh crore.

Rupee gains, F&O ban list expands

The rupee appreciated 13 paise to 85.92 against the dollar in early trade, buoyed by easing war risks and positive equity sentiment. Stocks under the F&O ban for the day include Titagarh, BirlaSoft, and MCX, as they breached 95% of the market-wide position limit.

Outlook

Market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, with technical indicators showing resilience and macro headwinds receding. Traders will keep a close watch on global macroeconomic data, US inflation prints, and Fed policy clues. With volatility cooling and risk appetite returning, the bias for the day remains upward, as long as the Nifty sustains above 25,000.