Republican Sen. Jon Husted leads Democrat Sherrod Brown by less than a point in Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to polls.

The survey, published by ActiVote, put the appointed incumbent at 50.2 percent to the former senator’s 49.8 percent, a 0.4-point edge among 400 likely voters, well inside the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error. The firm conducted the poll between September 26 and October 18, with a median field date of October 7.

ActiVote reported that the contest comes down to the middle of the electorate.

“The race is decided in the center, where Husted leads by 56% to 44%,” the firm wrote in its analysis.

The pollster found Husted ahead among rural voters, men, white voters, those aged 30 to 64, and voters with no more than a high school education. Brown led among suburban and urban voters, women, black voters, the youngest and oldest voters, and the college-educated. ActiVote noted the subgroup figures carry a considerably larger expected error than the topline and that Ohio does not register voters by party.

A second survey pointed the same direction. The account Political Polls posted Rasmussen Reports numbers from October 14 showing Husted at 49 percent and Brown at 47 percent among likely voters, which the account characterized as a five-point shift toward the Republican from an earlier result.

The two polls cut against a run of recent surveys giving Brown the advantage. A CNN poll of likely voters released October 8 had the Democrat up 49 percent to 43 percent. A New York Times/Siena College poll had Brown ahead 49 to 46. A Marist poll put him up eight points, 51 to 43.

Brown is running to reclaim the seat he lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in 2024. Husted does not hold it by election, as Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him last year to fill the vacancy created when Vice President JD Vance took office. Trump, who won Ohio by about 11 points in 2024, has endorsed Husted and stumped for him this month. The National Republican Senatorial Committee calls Brown a “two-time loser.”

Brown’s campaign manager, Patrick Eisenhauer, has said Husted is “for sale.”