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Oil Gains, US Stock Futures Drop on Iran Strikes: Markets Wrap

1 week ago 14

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(Bloomberg) — Oil gained and US equity-index futures slipped after the US said it struck Iran for a second straight day, stoking fears the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Financial Post

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West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $74.50 a barrel after posting its biggest daily gain in five weeks in the previous session. Brent briefly topped $80 a barrel. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 slid 0.1% after the underlying gauge dropped 0.3% Wednesday, while semiconductor shares advanced.

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Asian equity-index futures pointed to gains in Japan and South Korea, while those for Hong Kong fell. The chip sector remained in focus after SK Hynix Inc.’s US listing was more than seven times oversubscribed, according to people familiar with the matter.

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Elsewhere, a global bond selloff deepened as oil prices climbed. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, rose as much as five basis points to 4.23%, within a basis point of last month’s high. The 10-year yield climbed as much as four basis points to 4.59%, its highest since late May. Gold steadied after a three-day decline.

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The flare-up in tensions and surge in oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, prompting money markets on Wednesday to bring forward bets on the next Fed interest-rate increase to October from December. That has added to pressure on markets already grappling with elevated stock valuations after this year’s rally in artificial intelligence shares.

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The additional strikes were launched “to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US Central Command said in a social media post. 

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The attacks came just hours after President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in Turkey said the US would probably target the country again and could resume a blockade, raising concerns about a return to all-out war. 

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“Markets weren’t initially taking the re-escalation in US-Iran tensions too seriously earlier this week,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “But today, that seems to have changed.”

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Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni said the rupture in the ceasefire between the US and Iran risks sparking a fresh acceleration in price growth, which in turn could compel the Fed to raise interest rates.

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A few Fed officials in their most recent policy meeting said there was a case for raising rates, though they ultimately supported the decision to leave rates on hold. More generally, minutes of their June gathering reflected growing concern over inflation just as worries over the labor market slightly receded.

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“One thing is certain: future policy is heavily contingent on the political situation in the Middle East,” said Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial. “If we can tease out any forward guidance from the minutes, it would be the committee is working through a wide range of scenarios and will not commit to a specific scenario until the incoming data provides necessary clarity.”

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