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(Bloomberg) — Oil ticked higher, rising for a fourth straight day, on investor optimism around extended trade talks between the US and China, and signs of near-term physical tightness in the market.
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Global benchmark Brent rose above $67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate topped $65. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the initial discussions in London with officials from Beijing had been “fruitful”. The negotiations are slated to continue on Tuesday.
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Crude has declined this year on fears that persistent global trade tensions will sap economic growth and crimp energy demand, although progress in the latest US-China talks could ease such concerns and buoy risk assets. Oil has also been hurt as the OPEC+ alliance agreed to add production back to the market at a faster-than-expected clip, spurring forecasts for a glut.
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“Crude has preemptively priced in a degree of success in the US-China trade talks,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “We may not know the outcome for another day, and I expect prices to go into a holding pattern until then.”
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Oil’s pricing structure points to near-term tightness, although the reverse is the case further out. Brent’s prompt spread is 81 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern, with the nearest contract trading at a premium to the next in sequence. That’s up from 48 cents about a month ago.
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On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump expressed concern that Iran was seeking too much in a potential nuclear deal, including the ability to enrich uranium. He described the Iranian negotiators as tough but good. Talks will continue on Thursday, according to Trump.
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