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OTTAWA, Ontario, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Construction activity in Newfoundland and Labrador contracted modestly in 2025 as growth in the province’s residential sector was more than offset by a contraction in non-residential construction. The outlook calls for these trends to reverse to 2035.

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BuildForce Canada today released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward highlight reports for the residential and non-residential construction sectors in Newfoundland and Labrador for the period of 2026 to 2035. These reports were funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

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Although the outlook calls for a modest contraction in residential construction investment over the forecast period, that slowdown is projected to be more than offset by growth of nearly 25% in non-residential construction investment.

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Demand for new housing construction in the province is expected to step down in the early years of the forecast, and from the elevated levels reported in 2025. This occurs as population growth eases. In the middle of the forecast, new housing construction is projected to return to growth, with activity increasing in the construction of both single-detached and multi-unit residential structures. Levels then slow into 2035. Meanwhile, residential renovation activity, which is the principal driver of overall residential investment in the province, is expected to generally rise across the decade.

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By 2035, these factors are projected to combine to contract residential construction employment by 10% compared to 2025 levels, with the greatest loss experienced in the new-housing component.

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Non-residential construction activity is forecast to rise to a peak in 2031, driven by engineering construction in the mining, utilities, and transportation sectors. Major projects such as the Bay du Nord offshore oil development project and the expansion of the Churchill Falls Generating Station are expected to elevate non-residential investment to a forecast peak in 2031. Investment in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings, meanwhile, is expected to see notable growth across the forecast period, with work either currently ongoing or planned to start on such key projects as the St. John’s Penitentiary, and the Canada Revenue Agency National Verification and Collection Centre.

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By the end of the decade, non-residential construction employment is projected to rise by 15% compared with 2025 levels. The greatest growth is recorded in employment relating to ICI buildings, which is projected to add 27% over the forecast period.

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“Although there is a risk that slowing population growth may lead to labour surpluses in the province’s residential construction sector, the outlook for non-residential construction activity in Newfoundland and Labrador calls for strong growth, particularly as work begins on several major projects,” says Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Additionally, we are tracking, but have not modeled, several additional proposed projects that may have further – and profound – implications on employment trends.”

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Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction labour force outlook is heavily influenced by an aging demographic. By 2035, as many as 5,900 workers, or 30% of the 2025 labour force, are expected to exit the industry due to retirement. Combined with demands created by growth, the province could face a total hiring requirement of 5,700 workers.