File photo: the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem.

Published Friday, 6 November, 4:30 a.m. ET · Source: Office of the President of Israel, Knesset, public prediction-market data

Betting markets now say Benjamin Netanyahu is more likely than not to be out as Israel’s prime minister by 30 June 2027. On Polymarket, a crypto-based trading platform, the price is 56%, up about 16.5 points in seven days and 7.5 points in 24 hours.

It matters for US readers because Israel’s next government will shape Washington’s talks on Gaza and Iran. Our Israel election aftermath and coalition talks page tracks every step.

What the Traders Now Expect

Polymarket runs a market called “Netanyahu out by…?” with one price for each deadline. At 4:30 a.m. ET on 6 November the 30 June 2027 contract read 56%, the 31 March 2027 contract 56.5% and the 31 December 2026 contract 36.5%.

A week earlier, on 30 October, the same three contracts read 39.5%, 26% and 20.5%. The 31 December price has therefore gained about 16 points in seven days, and the March contract about 30.

The market has traded about US$125 million since it opened, but only about US$113,000 in the last 24 hours. The March contract saw about US$1,400 of trading in that time, so a few small bets can move it.

Why the Odds Moved

The jump follows the end of consultations at the office of Israel’s president. On Thursday, 5 November, President Isaac Herzog said 67 of the 120 lawmakers had recommended former army chief Gadi Eisenkot for prime minister, and 46 had recommended Netanyahu.

Eisenkot was backed by Yashar, his new party, and by Together, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett. Other backers were the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the Arab-led parties Ra’am and the Joint List.

Netanyahu was backed by Likud, his own party, and its allies. United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party, recommended neither.

Herzog said the result may appear clear, but that the law asks him to decide who can actually form a government. He pointed to “mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves” and said he would speak to some party leaders before Sunday.

Yoav Kisch of Likud said a government that depends on Arab parties cannot meet Israel’s challenges. Prediction markets do not explain their moves, so the timing fits this news but is not proof of what traders were thinking.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, “Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”: Eisenkot 64.1%, Netanyahu 23.1%, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party, 7.3%. About US$88.1 million has traded on that market overall.

Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), asks who will succeed Netanyahu: Eisenkot 72%, Lieberman 9.1%, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, 6%. Only about 142,000 contracts have traded there, so that market is thinly traded.

By the evening of 4 November the same Polymarket market read Eisenkot 57% and Netanyahu 31.1%. The two platforms ask slightly different questions, so their numbers should not be added together.

These prices are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

Israel is one of Washington’s closest partners, so a change of prime minister would reach US policy on Gaza, Iran and defence aid. A government that relied on Arab-led parties such as Ra’am would be politically contested, and Likud has already warned against it.

Markets, which are bets and not votes, currently lean towards a change of leader. Investors in Israeli assets should still wait for Herzog’s decision on Sunday, because the odds can reverse quickly.

What It Means for Latin America and Africa

The direct effect is limited. Israel’s new government will set its stance on Gaza and Iran, and tension in the Middle East is one of the factors that can move oil prices.

Oil exporters such as Brazil, Colombia and Nigeria, and oil importers across Africa, watch those prices. We found no report of an oil-market reaction to this vote, so this is a channel to watch, not an observed effect.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whom Herzog will choose on Sunday, or whether either candidate can reach 61 seats. A designated candidate normally has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.

We found no statement from Netanyahu on the tally itself. We also could not confirm the exact rules Polymarket uses to settle “out” if a caretaker government stays in place.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do prediction markets say about Netanyahu leaving office?

On Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, traders price 56% that he is out by 30 June 2027 and 36.5% by 31 December 2026. These are bets, not polls or forecasts by The Rio Times.

Why did the odds rise on 5 and 6 November?

No trader explanation is published. The rise came as President Herzog finished talks in which 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot and 46 recommended Netanyahu.

Who decides who forms Israel’s next government?

President Herzog decides which lawmaker has the best chance of building a majority. He plans to announce his choice on Sunday, 8 November.

Is a recommendation the same as a majority?

No. Herzog said recommendations alone do not settle it, because the blocs hold mutual vetoes. A government still needs 61 of 120 seats.

Can I trade on these markets?

This article gives no trading advice and links to no betting site. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC; Polymarket is a separate crypto-based platform.

Sources: Office of the President of Israel; Knesset, Israel’s parliament; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 6 November 2026, 4:30 a.m. ET).

Read more: Israel Challenger Odds Jump · Israel Certifies Vote, Rejects Fraud Claims · Israel’s Challenger Odds Jump to 47% · Prediction Markets hub · Latin America odds

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief