Mexico City, July 1, 2025 — Official data from the Mexican Stock Exchange and the Bank of Mexico show the S&P/BMV IPC index closed Monday with a modest 0.10% gain, ending at 57,482 points.

The market moved in a tight range, reflecting investor caution amid shifting monetary policy and persistent trade uncertainties. The session’s top performers included Industrias Peñoles, which surged 5.82% to 524.64 pesos.

Alfa rose 2.67% to 13.85 pesos, and América Móvil gained 2.19% to 16.80 pesos. On the losing side, Grupo Televisa dropped 3.91% to 8.35 pesos, Gentera fell 3.54% to 40.04 pesos, and Walmart de México slipped 3.11% to 62.08 pesos.

Decliners narrowly outnumbered advancers, with 120 stocks down, 117 up, and 18 unchanged. The Mexican peso extended its rally for a sixth consecutive session, closing at 18.7654 per dollar.

The currency posted its strongest quarter since 2020, gaining 8.28% over the last three months. The dollar index lost 0.64%, reflecting broad dollar weakness as investors weighed global trade negotiations and the U.S. monetary outlook.

Mexican Stocks Edge Higher as Peso Strengthens and Central Bank Signals Caution. (Photo Internet reproduction)

The Bank of Mexico’s decision last week to cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 8%—the lowest since July 2022—provided some support to equities. However, the move was not unanimous, and the central bank signaled a more cautious approach going forward.

The board cited exchange rate movements, weak economic activity, and the impact of global trade policies as key factors. Inflation projections have been revised upward, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% by year-end.

Technical analysis of the daily IPC chart reveals a market consolidating near multi-month highs. The index remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling ongoing upward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 54, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram shows a shallow negative reading but hints at stabilizing momentum. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting declining volatility.

The four-hour chart confirms this consolidation, with the index trading above key support levels and the RSI at 56.8, suggesting mild bullishness. The MACD on this timeframe has turned positive, reinforcing the short-term recovery narrative.

Both charts show price action respecting the lower Bollinger Band in mid-June before rebounding, a classic technical signal of a potential reversal.

Compared to peers, the IPC’s 8.47% year-to-date gain outpaces several global benchmarks, supported by robust export data and a resilient peso.

However, the market faces headwinds from slower economic growth and trade policy uncertainty. Commodity prices offered mixed signals, with gold up 0.83% and oil down 0.82%.

Overall, the IPC’s cautious advance reflects a market balancing monetary easing, a strong currency, and external risks. Investors appear to await clearer signals on trade and inflation before taking decisive positions.