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Market outlook: Q1 FY26 earnings, US-India trade talks to set tone for markets this week

1 week ago 1

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Market outlook: After witnessing a round of profit-booking last week – which saw broader indices trading higher – market participants will closely monitor cues of earnings recovery from the upcoming first quarter results starting next week, analysts said on Sunday. Additionally, focus will also be on the outcome of the interim India-US trade deal before the July 9 deadline, they added.

Apart from that, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend could influence global oil prices.

“On the macroeconomic front, the broader economy stands to benefit from favourable conditions such as easing inflation and declining interest rates. A positive outcome from the US-India trade negotiations could further lift market sentiment, particularly benefiting trade-sensitive sectors like IT, pharma, and auto,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Last week, the markets traded in a range bound manner, but closed on a positive note. Nifty closed 55.7 points higher at 25,461, while the Sensex closed 193 points higher at 83,432.

The broader market received support from key sectors such as banking, pharma, IT, realty, oil & gas and media, which recorded gains between 0.4 per cent and 1 per cent.

However, metal, telecom and auto stocks performed weak, limiting the overall gains.

“Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the anticipated US-India trade agreement, with the tariff deadline drawing closer. A favourable outcome from the talks could act as a major trigger for the next phase of the rally, especially given the recent lack of directional momentum. This event is being closely tracked by institutional participants and could determine the near-term trend,” according to a note by Choice Broking.

As per Fibonacci extension, the next key upside targets are seen at 27,300 and 28,600. On the downside, key supports are placed at 25,000 and 24,500, where buying interest is likely to emerge, it said.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty index closed at 57,031.90, showing a decline of 0.72 per cent from the previous week's close.

The weekly chart shows rejection at higher levels; however, the index has managed to hold above the crucial 57,000 mark. Choice Broking note said that selling pressure at higher levels indicates a possibility of the current uptrend getting halted, indicating possible volatility in the near future.

For the current expiry, put options show the highest concentration near 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, marking these as key support levels. Conversely, analysts said significant open interest in call options at 57,000 and 57,500 indicates potential resistance, suggesting a possible trading range of 56,500-57,500 in the upcoming sessions.

FIIs have turned cautious amid elevated market valuations and mixed global cues, while DIIs continue to provide support, helping stabilise sentiments.

With the inputs of IANS

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