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Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.
All times on the map are Pacific time.
The New York Times
A light, 4.2-magnitude earthquake struck in Washington on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The temblor happened at 2:05 p.m. Pacific time about 4 miles northwest of Wauna, Wash., or about 15 miles southwest of Seattle, data from the agency shows.
Aftershocks forecast
While individual earthquakes can’t be predicted, geologists can calculate the chances that more earthquakes will follow an initial quake using statistical models of past events.
For this earthquake, it is unlikely — about a 5 percent chance — that a larger quake will strike the area in the next day, according to the U.S.G.S. Here is the forecast for aftershocks of other sizes:
3.0 mag. or stronger
Perhaps
34%
4.0 mag. or stronger
Unlikely
7%
5.0 mag. or stronger
Unlikely
<1%
Note: Chance of aftershocks typically decreases over time. Forecast quake counts are estimates.
Data is as of Sept. 29 at 4:05 p.m. through Oct. 6 at 4:05 p.m. Pacific time.
The New York Times
The rate of aftershocks typically decreases over time, and forecasts are available for the next week, month and year.
As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.
Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Tuesday, Sept. 29 at 6:10 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, Sept. 29 at 7:22 p.m. Eastern.
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