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Week Overview
This is the Warsh Fed’s first inflation teSt June CPI (Tuesday, 8:30 AM ET, cons. −0.1% MoM / ~3.9% YoY per BMO and Kiplinger) could deliver the first negative monthly headline in over a year — gasoline fell about 10% in June after the Iran peace talks eased Hormuz shipping risk. But as Kiplinger warns, do not let a negative headline fool you: core CPI (cons.
0.3% MoM) stays sticky at 2.9% year-over-year, and the Fed’s newly hawkish dot plot — a median of 3.8% with nine of 18 members projecting hikes by year-end — means Chairman Kevin Warsh is watching core, not the headline.
PPI (Wednesday, cons. 0.0% MoM vs 1.1% prior) confirms the energy-driven producer deflation, and the Bank of Canada decides the same day (cons. hold 2.25%).
The Beige Book (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET) maps regional conditions in the oil shock’s aftermath, while retail sales (Thursday, cons. +0.3%) and the Philly Fed (cons. 12.1) measure demand.
Abroad, China’s Q2 GDP (Tuesday overnight, cons. +0.9% QoQ) tests the world’s second economy; UK monthly GDP (Thursday, cons. +0.1%) and euro-zone CPI final (Friday, cons. 2.8% YoY) round out the G7.
Michigan sentiment (Friday, cons. 51.4 vs 49.5) could mark the first improvement in five months.
Brazil delivers services (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and IBC-Br (Friday); OPEC meets Monday and the Bank of Korea decides overnight Wednesday. There are no major market holidays — normal trading worldwide.
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Three Themes That Will Define the Week
Theme One — The Negative-Headline Trap
June CPI at −0.1% month-over-month would be the first negative print since early 2024 — but it is a gasoline mirage. Pump prices fell about 10% as Iran peace talks reopened Hormuz shipping lanes, per BMO’s Douglas Porter.
Strip energy out and core CPI sits exactly where it was in May, with shelter up 0.3%.
The Warsh Fed raised its 2026 median inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7%, and nine of 18 dots project hikes. This is not a committee that will celebrate a headline driven by cheaper gasoline.
Core PPI easing to 0.3% on Wednesday would be the first genuine good news on the cost pipeline.
Theme Two — The Real-Economy Verdict
The Bank of Canada (Wednesday, cons. hold 2.25%) faces CPI at 2.4% and a labour market showing strain — Governor Tiff Macklem needs clarity on whether the oil-shock pass-through has peaked. The Beige Book maps hiring, prices and output across all 12 Fed districts under the new Chair.
US retail sales (Thursday, cons. +0.3% vs. +0.9%) should decelerate as the gasoline surge that inflated spring spending reverses; the control group is the real signal. The Philly Fed and NY Empire State provide the July factory reads.
Theme Three — The Global Frame
China’s Q2 GDP (cons. +0.9% QoQ vs. +1.3%) decelerating alongside industrial production and negative retail sales paints an economy struggling under property-sector weakness. UK monthly GDP tests whether the Q1 acceleration is holding, and euro-zone CPI final validates the ECB’s easing case ahead of July 16.
Michigan sentiment could mark the first improvement since February as falling gasoline lifts the mood. For Latin America, Brazil’s IBC-Br, services and retail data frame the Copom’s August meeting.
The Week at a Glance
Mon
6:00 AM · Global · OPEC Meeting
High
Mon
7:25 AM · Brazil · BCB Focus Market Readout
High
Tue
8:30 AM · US · CPI MoM / YoY (Jun)
High
Tue
8:30 AM · US · Core CPI MoM / YoY (Jun)
High
Tue
10:00 PM · China · GDP QoQ / YTD YoY (Q2)
High
Wed
8:30 AM · US · PPI / Core PPI MoM (Jun)
High
Wed
9:45 AM · Canada · BoC Interest Rate Decision
High
Wed
2:00 PM · US · Beige Book
High
Wed
9:00 PM · Korea · Bank of Korea Rate Decision
High
Thu
2:00 AM · UK · GDP MoM (May)
High
Thu
8:30 AM · US · Retail Sales MoM (Jun)
High
Thu
8:30 AM · US · Philly Fed Manufacturing (Jul)
High
Fri
5:00 AM · EU · EZ CPI YoY (Jun, final)
High
Fri
8:00 AM · Brazil · IBC-Br Economic Activity (May)
High
Fri
10:00 AM · US · Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)
High
01 Monday — July 13
OPEC sets the oil-price frame before Tuesday’s CPI. OPEC meets Monday and Brazil’s BCB Focus survey — the first since the June Copom — opens the Latin American week. India’s June CPI tests the RBI’s room to ease, while Fed governor Waller and ECB President Lagarde deliver their last remarks before their respective decisions.
6:00 AM
Global · OPEC Meeting
High
6:30 AM
India · CPI YoY (Jun) — cons. 4.30%, prior 3.93%
High
7:25 AM
Brazil · BCB Focus Market Readout
High
12:30 PM
US · Fed Waller Speaks
High
12:45 PM
EU · ECB Schnabel Speaks
Med
2:00 PM
US · Federal Budget Balance (Jun) — cons. −132.8B, prior −293.0B
Med
5:00 PM
EU · ECB President Lagarde Speaks
High
02 Tuesday — July 14
CPI Day, and China’s Q2 GDP overnight. June CPI could print the first negative monthly headline in over a year, but it is a gasoline mirage; core at 2.9% is what the hawkish Warsh Fed watches, and five Fed speakers process the number in real time. Overnight, China’s Q2 GDP decelerates alongside negative retail sales.
4:45 AM
UK · BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
High
6:00 AM
US · NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun) — cons. 95.6, prior 95.3
Med
8:30 AM
US · CPI MoM (Jun) — cons. −0.1%, prior 0.5%
High
8:30 AM
US · CPI YoY (Jun) — cons. ~3.9%, prior 4.2%
High
8:30 AM
US · Core CPI MoM (Jun) — cons. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
High
8:30 AM
US · Core CPI YoY (Jun) — cons. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
High
12:40 PM
US · Fed Vice Chair Barr Speaks
Med
1:00 PM
US · Fed Goolsbee Speaks
Med
1:30 PM
US · Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Med
2:55 PM
US · FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Med
10:00 PM
China · GDP QoQ (Q2) — cons. 0.9%, prior 1.3%
High
10:00 PM
China · GDP YTD YoY (Q2) — cons. 4.5%, prior 5.0%
High
10:00 PM
China · Industrial Production YoY (Jun) — cons. 4.6%, prior 4.5%
High
10:00 PM
China · Retail Sales YoY (Jun) — cons. −0.1%, prior −0.6%
Med
03 Wednesday — July 15
PPI, the BoC, the Beige Book and Empire State. PPI confirms the energy reversal at the producer level. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold at 2.25%, the Beige Book is the first anecdotal survey of the Warsh era, and the Bank of Korea decides overnight.
5:00 AM
EU · EZ Industrial Production MoM (May) — cons. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Med
8:00 AM
Brazil · Services Sector Growth MoM / YoY (May) — prior 1.2% / 1.9%
High
8:30 AM
US · PPI MoM (Jun) — cons. 0.0%, prior 1.1%
High
8:30 AM
US · Core PPI MoM (Jun) — cons. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
High
8:30 AM
US · PPI YoY (Jun) — prior 6.5%
Med
8:30 AM
US · NY Empire State Manufacturing (Jul) — cons. 8.70, prior 5.70
High
8:45 AM
US · FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Med
9:45 AM
Canada · BoC Interest Rate Decision — cons. 2.25%, prior 2.25%
High
10:30 AM
Canada · BoC Press Conference
High
1:00 PM
US · Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Med
1:30 PM
Brazil · Foreign Exchange Flows — prior −4.218B
Med
2:00 PM
US · Beige Book
High
9:00 PM
Korea · Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision — prior 2.50%
High
04 Thursday — July 16
Retail sales, UK GDP and the Philly Fed. US retail sales should slow as the spring gasoline surge reverses; a negative core print would show the consumer pulling back beyond the energy math. UK monthly GDP is a key BoE input and Brazil retail sales test domestic demand.
2:00 AM
UK · GDP MoM (May) — cons. 0.1%, prior −0.1%
High
2:00 AM
UK · GDP YoY (May) — prior 1.2%
Med
2:00 AM
UK · Industrial Production MoM (May) — cons. −0.1%, prior 0.0%
Med
2:00 AM
UK · Trade Balance (May) — cons. −22.80B, prior −26.05B
Med
4:00 AM
EU · Italian CPI YoY (Jun, final) — cons. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
Med
5:00 AM
EU · EZ Trade Balance (May) — prior −1.0B
Med
8:00 AM
Brazil · Retail Sales MoM / YoY (May) — prior −1.5% / 1.0%
High
8:30 AM
US · Retail Sales MoM (Jun) — cons. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
High
8:30 AM
US · Core Retail Sales MoM (Jun) — cons. −0.1%, prior 0.8%
High
8:30 AM
US · Initial Jobless Claims — cons. 215K, prior 215K
Med
8:30 AM
US · Philly Fed Manufacturing (Jul) — cons. 12.1, prior 10.3
High
10:00 AM
US · Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun) — cons. −0.3%, prior 3.8%
Med
10:00 AM
US · NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) — cons. 35, prior 35
Med
12:30 PM
US · Fed Logan Speaks
Med
7:00 PM
US · Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
Med
05 Friday — July 17
EZ CPI final, Michigan sentiment and Brazil’s IBC-Br. Euro-zone CPI final is the ECB’s last input before July 16. Brazil’s IBC-Br is the Copom‘s GDP proxy for August, and Michigan sentiment rising above 50 for the first time since February would mark a consumer-confidence turn.
5:00 AM
EU · EZ CPI YoY (Jun, final) — cons. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
High
5:00 AM
EU · EZ Core CPI YoY (Jun, final) — cons. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
High
7:00 AM
Brazil · IGP-10 Inflation MoM (Jul) — prior −0.3%
Med
8:00 AM
Brazil · IBC-Br Economic Activity (May) — prior 0.50%
High
8:30 AM
US · Housing Starts (Jun) — cons. 1.320M, prior 1.177M
High
8:30 AM
US · Building Permits (Jun) — cons. 1.400M, prior 1.410M
Med
8:30 AM
US · Import Price Index MoM (Jun) — cons. −0.4%, prior 1.9%
Med
9:15 AM
US · Industrial Production MoM (Jun) — cons. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
Med
10:00 AM
US · Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul, prelim) — cons. 51.4, prior 49.5
High
10:00 AM
US · Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul) — prior 4.6%
High
10:00 AM
US · Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul) — prior 3.3%
High
1:00 PM
US · Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Med
The Week in Context
Chairman Warsh’s first FOMC on June 17 redefined the landscape: a 130-word statement with no forward guidance, a dot plot showing nine of 18 members projecting hikes, and a median fed-funds forecast of 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. The 2026 inflation forecast jumped to 3.6% from 2.7%.
May CPI printed 4.2% year-over-year with core at 2.9% — the energy component drove the headline while shelter and services stayed contained. June’s data flips the energy story: gasoline fell about 10% as Iran peace negotiations eased Hormuz transit risk, so the headline can turn negative even as core stays sticky.
Markets now price a quarter-point hike by December and zero cuts. Three central banks are in play — the BoC on Wednesday, the Bank of Korea overnight, and the ECB next week on July 16, with euro-zone CPI final arriving Friday as the last input.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday’s CPI will generate headlines about falling inflation. Ignore them.
The −0.1% monthly print is gasoline, and the Warsh Fed’s dot plot — nine of 18 members projecting hikes — tells you the committee is watching core, which holds at 2.9%. Headline inflation is mechanically declining as oil eases from the March peak near $118, while underlying pressure stays sticky enough to keep hike risk alive.
PPI on Wednesday confirms the energy reversal; retail sales on Thursday test whether consumers are spending less or just paying less for fuel; and Michigan on Friday could deliver the first sentiment improvement since February. For Latin America, Brazil’s IBC-Br on Friday is the Copom’s August input.
The oil shock may be fading. The inflation problem is not.
Reported for The Rio Times — Markets. Filed July 12, 2026.
Sources: BLS (US CPI/PPI/Retail Sales), Federal Reserve (Beige Book, FOMC), Bank of Canada, NBS China (Q2 GDP), ONS (UK GDP), Eurostat (EZ CPI), IBGE (Brazil IBC-Br), University of Michigan, Bank of Korea, Kiplinger, BMO, Investing.com, TradingEconomics.
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