After a decade in the Opposition, the outcome of the Kerala Assembly elections, set to be declared on May 4, appears to be crucial for the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a key constituent in the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Long positioned at the heart of the State’s coalition politics, particularly thriving on its religious influence, the party now faces one of the most consequential tests in its political history. The election results point to three plausible scenarios: the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) retaining power, the UDF staging a comeback, or a fractured mandate with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) emerging as a marginal but potentially disruptive player in a hung Assembly.