As the U.S. marks its sharpest decrease in violent crime in recent history, researchers are leaving no stone unturned trying to decipher — with some even questioning whether the rise in Ozempic could be a factor in the lowered rates of violent offenses.

The violent crime rate fell 9.3 percent from 2024 to 2025, according to FBI data, marking the largest year-to-year decline since the FBI began following crime trends in 1936.

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell 18.1 percent, robbery plunged 18.5 percent, rape fell 7.6 percent and aggravated assault was down 7.2 percent, according to the FBI.

There seem to be a variety of possible reasons for the decline, including reduced alcohol and drug use since the COVID-19 pandemic, increased use of AI tools by law enforcement and an aging population across the country.

The rise in the use of GLP-1s like Ozempic may also be behind the downward shift, as Axios reports the drug has been clinically linked to decreased alcohol abuse and improved impulse control — both of which can lead to violent offenses.

Leonard Adam Sipes Jr., a former Justice Department senior statistics specialist, told Axios there’s “no doubt” that Americans consuming less alcohol helped lower the crime rate.

Sipes told the outlet that the shrinking number of young people in the country is also keeping crime lower. However, he said it may be too early to tell whether AI and other new policing technology have had any major impact just yet.

Violent crime rates have been dropping since 2022, following an increase during COVID lockdowns. The FBI noted on its website that the current data “offer a striking reversal from the increase in violent crime seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“They also represent the second consecutive year of substantial declines,” the FBI said.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump addressed the decreases in annual crime numbers during a trip to a New York police academy.

During that appearance, Trump reiterated his claim that his administration’s extended use of National Guard troops in cities including Washington, D.C., and Memphis, Tennessee, have contributed to those lowered rates.

However, Sipes told Axios that there’s little evidence suggesting that National Guard deployments or other aggressive measures from the Trump administration led to the decline, as crime rates also dropped in cities without these additional measures.