Fears of Iran war hitting Europe as Turkey shoots down ballistic missile and the shadowy IRGC disperse to try to outlast this multi-billion American-Israeli onslaught

As the US-Israeli war against Iran enters its tenth day it is becoming increasingly obvious Tehran has planned for a devastating war of attrition against the greater force. Now Turkey has shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile in its airspace, spreading the war even wider and contradicting madcap US claims it has already won the war.

This hits home hard, that a Middle Eastern war can encroach on Europe and begin sucking it into the conflagration - all intended to spread chaos and economic damage. Iran has known for years it would be impossible to take on the superior militaries in a conventional war so it dispersed its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps all over the country. Whilst the US bragged it has decapitated the leadership with the death of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this has not removed the ability of the IRGC to operate with effect.

Overnight Iran has continued to fire missiles at Israel, air raid sirens blaring all over the country, some intercepted but with reports some hit Tel Aviv inflicting casualties. As this conflict spreads by the hour so does the death toll, over 1,200 in Iran with 12,000 injuries, approaching 400 in Lebanon, a seventh US soldier died overnight.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi described Iran's defense strategy in a post on X: “We've had two decades to study defeats of the U.S. military to our immediate east and west. “We've incorporated lessons accordingly. Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war. Decentralized Mosaic Defense enables us to decide when—and how—war will end.”

Two key pillars of Iran’s strategy are put forth here: first, observing and adapting to US military weaknesses, and second, complete decentralisation of its command and control to ensure resilience and continuity in the event of decapitation strikes. And despite Donald Trump’s hubris and bluster about winning the war and controlling who takes over the leadership of Iran the IRGC has been further empowered by the accession to leadership of Khamenei’s 56 year-old son Motjaba, whose deep connections to the IRGC was established over years.

Although he is only a mid-ranking cleric this bodes badly for the swift end to the war or even a capitulation by Tehran, which US President Donald Trump is demanding. Trump is claiming, whilst admonishing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the UK’s reticence towards the war, that America has ‘already won’ this war.

If winning means merely killing a number of IRGC and other security figures that claim may have meaning but the group no longer needs a head. It is widening its reaction to the war, bombing a Bahraini de-salination plant in perhaps a promise of what is in store for the Gulf States, which rely heavily on water production.

And what of Europe’s military involvement - which also deepens by the day? By now five European countries, Greece, France, Italy, Spain and Germany has warships in the eastern Mediterranean guarding Cyprus and other interests. The British warship HMS Dragon is expected to set sail for the region later this week and will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean some time next week, it is believed.

Iran’s regime, despite Trump’s ludicrous claims of victory, is proving it has a far greater threshold for suffering, knowing it is an existential battle to out-last the US bombardments. The bill for the US and Israeli attacks- just in missiles alone will already run into billions, the bill just to keep the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln afloat in the region already over £60 million.

A US intelligence assessment report seen by the Mirror today suggests: “Closely related to Iran’s missile program is its asymmetric warfare toolkit, used so far in its retaliatory strikes.

“Tehran, cognizant of its inability to win a conventional war against the U.S., relies on irregular tactics to drag out the war, primarily through economic coercion and cost asymmetry.

“A Shahed drone, which costs roughly $20,000 to $50,000 per unit to produce, is significantly cheaper than the interceptor systems the U.S. and its allies rely on in the region. Patriot missile interceptors cost roughly $4m per shot. Leveraging cost asymmetry is a well-established strategy that Iran-backed proxy Yemen has perfected during the Red Sea Crisis, where the US spent billions intercepting relatively cheap missiles that disrupted global trade for months."

Trump claims he is already winning a war that is unsustainable, it is only the tenth day and it is already hitting the world economy hard.