NPR's Leila Fadel asks Dania Thafer of the Gulf International Forum whether countries in the Middle East consider the U.S. a reliable ally.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Let's go deeper now on the Gulf and how the war the U.S. and Israel started in Iran has affected the U.S. relationship with Gulf Arab allies - key defense partners in the region. To talk about that, I'm joined by Dania Thafer. She is the executive director of the Washington-based think tank Gulf International Forum and she joins us from Doha, Qatar. Welcome to the program, and good morning.

DANIA THAFER: Thank you for having me.

FADEL: So during this months-long war, Iran really targeted the Gulf. Hundreds of drones and missiles hit infrastructure, hotels, oil and gas facilities. But the main targets were American bases, right? Does all of this damage change the calculus in countries like Kuwait or Qatar, where you are, about whether it's worth it to have U.S. bases in their countries?

THAFER: I think, you know, that's a question that's being pondered in general. However, I - it's also noteworthy to mention that these bases did serve as a deterrent prior to the U.S. attacking Iran. So it depends how Iran will engage these bases moving forward. Also, the Gulf states still continued with their close alliance with the U.S. As you have seen at the G7, Gulf leaders were sitting with President Trump. And so it does indicate that they're going to continue this relationship.

And so, you know - but there has been, I say, you know, among thought leaders in the Gulf questioning the value of bases in the region and the fact that they were able to use U.S. technology as a defense posture and, in some ways, that the technology served more valuable than the bases themselves in defending the Gulf states. So there is a debate about whether having technology alone could just serve their defense purposes versus the bases. But I think the base situation is a much more complicated matter that has to do with both the Gulf states and the U.S. - what both sides want to do moving forward, just because the Gulf - U.S. is the Gulf states' most important ally from a security perspective, regardless of what happened.

FADEL: Is - so you see it - I mean, is the U.S. still seen by leadership there as a reliable defense partner?

THAFER: Well, Anwar Gargash, who's an important figure in Emirati foreign policies, mentioned that, look, it was the U.S.' defense system that helped us overcome this while Iran was the one shooting the missiles. So I still think, yes, the U.S. is viewed to be more unreliable as time has passed, but at the same time, what are the alternatives? You have a hesitant Europeans. You have China playing a very minimal role, and Russia - both giving intelligence to the Iranians against the Gulf states. So in a vacuum, yes, anyone would question the U.S.-Gulf relations. But when you look at the whole pictures, collectively speaking, the U.S. is still the best option out of not-so-good options.

FADEL: Let me ask about that because, as you mentioned, the technology was helpful in the defenses, but also these allies were getting hit because of the U.S.' role in this war. And now one of President Trump's many goals that he announced the war was about was to eliminate the threat of Iran's short-range ballistic missiles. Now he's saying, no, that's not part of it. It's not in the memo. And Vice President Vance has said, well, you can't tell a country it can't defend itself. And those were the missiles that Iran was using against the Gulf. So what are Gulf countries thinking when they hear that?

THAFER: It's a big disappointment in general. I think, you know, the whole Strait of Hormuz disruption situation made that the urgent matter and the priority from the perspective of the Gulf states. And therefore, they are prioritizing the Strait of Hormuz because that's linked to their economic and political security. But, of course, now, when you compare this impending deal with the JCPOA, I mean, it seems like they're in the same situation and a bit worse.

FADEL: We'll have to leave it there. That's Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum. She joined us from Doha, Qatar. Thank you for being on the program, and we hope to hear from you on here again soon.

THAFER: Thank you.

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