An employee checks his phone in front of copper concentrate in a warehouse at Canadian First Quantum's Panama copper mine in Donoso, Panama, on March 21, 2025. Photo by MARTIN BERNETTI/AFP via Getty Images

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United States President Donald Trump‘s move to place a 50 per cent tariff on copper imports — one of the world’s most versatile metals — could shake up the global metals trade and reverberate throughout Canada.

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Canada’s copper trade with the U.S. is significant, with the country exporting $4.86 billion of copper and copper-based products to the U.S. in 2023 and importing $3.07 billion, according to Natural Resources Canada.

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But much remains unknown about the tariffs, including when they may be applied, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick only saying it would happen before Aug. 1.

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That uncertainty has even the labour union representing workers at Glencore PLC‘s Horne Smelter in Rouyn-Noranda, Que. — Canada’s only copper smelter — which both sends copper products to the U.S. and receives feedstock from the U.S., greeting Trump’s announcement with a shrug.

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“We have no reason to believe there will be a negative impact on jobs in Rouyn-Noranda at this time,” Kevin Gagnon, president of the Federation of the Manufacturing Industry union, said. “We’re not at all certain that the tariffs on Canadian copper will go into effect given that Trump always chickens out.”

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Tom Mulqueen, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., predicted Trump may ultimately soften the tariff for key trading partners such as Canada.

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“We see Chile, Canada and Mexico likely all eventually securing a lower 25 per cent rate as key partners,” he said in a note on Tuesday.

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Copper prices in the U.S. are already rising sharply with futures — a key trading benchmark — shooting up 13 per cent to close at a record high on Tuesday of US$5.654 per pound, about US$1.20 higher than futures in London.

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Glencore, the Swiss mining and metals trading giant that mines copper in Ontario and processes it in Quebec, both imports e-waste from the U.S. as feedstock for its smelter and also ships products to the U.S.

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“Canada and the United States benefit from a robust and highly integrated copper supply chain, one that Glencore plays an active part in,” company spokesman Charlie Watenphul said in a statement. “This is an important issue for our business, and we continue to watch developments closely.”

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In the past, Pierre Gratton, president of the Mining Association of Canada, has said Glencore’s smelter operates on “very small margins, so any increase in costs can be very serious.”

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But much of Canada’s copper sector is protected from direct impacts of the proposed tariff, with more than 45 per cent of the copper produced in 2023 flowing from mines in British Columbia, which send most of their copper to Asia for processing.

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The tariff may even benefit one Canadian company. Vancouver-based Taseko Mines Ltd., which mines copper in B.C., is in the final stages of building a roughly $300-million copper mine in Arizona that is expected to commence production within the next year.