Brazil’s financial markets are primed for a volatile session today, driven by key and second-tier global economic indicators amid domestic pressures following a weak close last week.

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) maintained the Selic rate at 15% after a 0.25 percentage point hike on June 18, 2025, to curb inflation above the 3% target, the highest since 2006.

This tightens borrowing costs, potentially slowing sectors like retail and construction, while supporting the Brazilian real through carry trade interest. With a 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion, fiscal concerns heighten market sensitivity to global cues.

Today’s key domestic event, the BCB Focus Market Readout, will shape inflation and growth expectations, critical for currency and equity markets.

Globally, India’s Nikkei Manufacturing and Services PMIs signal industrial and economic activity, impacting Brazil’s metal and agribusiness exports. Singapore’s CPI data will reflect inflation trends, influencing commodity trade sentiment.

In Europe, French and German PMI data (Manufacturing, Services, and Composite) and ECB President Lagarde’s speech will gauge industrial and monetary policy trends, vital for Brazil’s metal and agricultural exports.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 23, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)

Mexico’s Economic Activity and Retail Sales will signal regional demand for Brazil’s agribusiness. In the U.S., Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales will indicate industrial and consumer demand, affecting Brazil’s oil, metal, and protein exports.

These events are pivotal as the Ibovespa navigates technical weakness, the real remains under pressure, and commodities face global trade tensions.

Economic Agenda

Brazil

• 08:25 AM EST / 09:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, previous TBD. Shapes inflation and growth expectations, critical for currency and equity markets.

Mexico

• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.20%, previous -0.40%. Signals regional economic health, impacting Brazil’s agribusiness trade.
• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -2.00%, previous 2.50%. Reflects growth trends, affecting export demand.
• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, previous 0.5%. Signals consumer spending, critical for Brazil’s agribusiness exports.
• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, previous 4.3%. Reflects retail trends, influencing trade flows.

United States

• 09:45 AM EST / 10:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 51.1, previous 52.0. Signals industrial demand for Brazil’s oil and metals.
• 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus -1.3%, previous -0.5%. Signals housing demand, impacting Brazil’s copper exports.
• 10:00 AM EST / 11:00 AM BRT – Existing Home Sales (May): Actual TBD, consensus 3.96M, previous 4.00M. Reflects consumer spending, affecting Brazil’s exports.

India

• 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual 58.4, consensus 57.7, previous 57.6. Strong manufacturing activity signals robust demand for Brazilian metals.
• 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – Nikkei Services PMI (Jun): Actual 60.7, consensus 58.6, previous 58.8. Resilient service sector growth supports commodity trade sentiment.
• 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – Current Account (USD): Actual TBD, previous -23.200B. Tracks trade balance, affecting Brazilian exports.
• 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – Current Account % of GDP (YoY): Actual TBD, previous -0.70%. Signals economic health, impacting commodity trade.

Singapore

• 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (May): Actual 0.8%, consensus 0.8%, previous 0.9%. Stable inflation impacts commodity trade sentiment.
• 01:00 AM EST / 02:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (May): Actual 0.60%, consensus 0.60%, previous 0.70%. Stable inflation supports commodity demand trends.

Eurozone

• 03:19 AM EST / 04:19 AM BRT – French Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 49.8, previous 49.8. Signals industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
• 03:19 AM EST / 04:19 AM BRT – French Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 49.2, previous 48.9. Gauges service sector health, affecting trade sentiment.
• 03:34 AM EST / 04:34 AM BRT – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 48.9, previous 48.3. Reflects industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
• 03:34 AM EST / 04:34 AM BRT – German Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 47.8, previous 47.1. Tracks service sector trends, impacting trade flows.
• 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 49.6, previous 49.4. Signals industrial activity, impacting Brazil’s metal exports.
• 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 50.0, previous 49.7. Reflects service sector demand, impacting trade.
• 09:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Actual TBD. Provides monetary policy signals, critical for Brazil’s commodity exports.

United Kingdom

• 04:30 AM EST / 05:30 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 46.9, previous 46.4. Reflects industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
• 04:30 AM EST / 05:30 AM BRT – Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 51.2, previous 50.9. Gauges consumer spending trends, affecting Brazil’s agribusiness exports.

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

The Ibovespa closed on June 20, 2025, at 137,115.83 points, down 1.15%, as per B3 and TradingView data. Persistent selling pressure stemmed from global trade tensions and a technical breakdown.

The index fell below its 50-day moving average, entered the Ichimoku cloud, and saw a negative MACD crossover, with RSI at 53.13. Bollinger Bands widened, with the price near the lower band, signaling heightened volatility.

The Brazilian real remained under pressure, with 15% interest rates and a 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio curbing risk appetite.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday

U.S. markets ended lower on June 20, 2025, with technology stocks leading declines. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35 points, or 0.1%, supported by lower tech exposure.

Elevated trading volume reflected a quarterly triple-witching day, involving expirations of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options.

Markets struggled late, signaling caution over potential weekend geopolitical or policy risks, particularly from the Middle East or the White House.

Stable Treasury yields and volatile oil prices shaped a cautious tone, impacting Brazilian commodity exports and the real.

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Commodities

Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real faced pressure on June 20, 2025, as USDBRL trended toward key resistance, with bulls regaining control after early dollar weakness.

High 15% interest rates supported carry trade but weighed on risk assets. Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout and CFTC BRL Speculative Net Positions will guide currency sentiment, critical for export competitiveness.

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Oil Prices

Oil prices surged briefly on June 23, 2025, due to Middle East strikes but retreated, with Brent crude near $73 per barrel, focusing on supply fundamentals.

This pressures Petrobras’ revenues, though Brazil’s oil exports remain resilient. Today’s CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions and Mexico’s Economic Activity will signal demand trends.

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Gold Prices

Gold prices were muted on June 23, 2025, near $3,340 per troy ounce, as the dollar’s dominance overshadowed U.S.-Iran escalation fears.

Safe-haven demand supports Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s German Manufacturing PMI and CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions will influence safe-haven flows.

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Silver Prices

Silver held steady on June 23, 2025, at $35.60 per ounce, with strong fundamentals offset by cautious technicals and U.S.-Iran uncertainty.

This impacts Vale’s mining exports. Today’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and CFTC Silver Speculative Net Positions will guide industrial metal demand.

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Copper Prices

Copper prices were steady on June 23, 2025, at $4.66 per pound, supported by technical barriers despite surplus forecasts.

This impacts Vale’s revenues, with Brazil’s copper exports facing challenges. Today’s German Manufacturing PMI and CFTC Copper Speculative Net Positions will clarify industrial demand.

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Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin dipped below $101,000 on June 23, 2025, pressured by geopolitical risks and bearish technicals, though altcoins showed resilience.

This supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI and CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Net Positions will influence risk appetite.

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Iron Ore Prices

Iron ore prices held steady on June 23, 2025, at $94 per ton on the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index, despite oversupply and weak Chinese demand.

This supports Vale, though challenges persist. Today’s India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and CFTC Aluminium Speculative Net Positions will signal demand trends.

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Companies and Market

Industry Outlook

Brazil’s agribusiness sector, contributing 27.4% to GDP in 2024, faces headwinds in 2025 from the 15% Selic rate and global trade uncertainties. Inflation at 5.2% and fiscal strains with a R$104 billion deficit and 76.2% debt-to-GDP ratio challenge growth.

Today’s India Nikkei PMIs, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. Existing Home Sales will shape export demand and currency stability, critical for mining and agriculture.

Company Updates

Randoncorp’s Revenue Growth: Randoncorp projected strong revenue growth for 2025 on June 20, 2025, driven by industrial sector expansion and strategic investments.

The 15% Selic rate pressures margins, but demand remains robust. Today’s German Manufacturing PMI and Mexico’s Economic Activity will influence industrial sentiment.

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Explanation of EST

Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.