Brazil’s financial markets are poised for a pivotal session today, driven by a series of domestic and international economic indicators that will shape investor confidence.

Key domestic releases, including Brazil’s BCB Focus Market Readout and IBC-Br Economic Activity for April, will provide critical insights into market expectations for inflation, GDP growth, interest rates, and economic activity trends.

These metrics are essential for guiding investor sentiment and the Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) monetary policy decisions, especially with the Selic rate at 14.75% and fiscal challenges, including a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 76.2% and a projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion.

The data will also influence expectations around fiscal sustainability and the ongoing IOF financial transaction tax debate, which could impact currency stability and equity market sentiment.

Internationally, India’s WPI Inflation, WPI Manufacturing Inflation, and Trade Balance for May will signal inflationary pressures and trade dynamics in a key emerging market, affecting demand for Brazilian commodities like agricultural goods and metals.

In Switzerland, the PPI (YoY and MoM) for May will provide insights into producer price trends, influencing global commodity demand.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for June 16, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)

In the Eurozone, German Buba President Nagel’s speech, Italian CPI for May, and Wages in Eurozone for Q1 will offer clues on monetary policy direction and labor cost pressures, impacting trade flows for Brazilian exports such as iron ore and soybeans.

In the United States, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for June will gauge industrial activity, a key driver of demand for Brazilian oil and agricultural exports.

These events are critical as the Ibovespa navigates volatility following a 0.43% decline on June 13, the Brazilian real holds steady near R$5.54, and commodity markets face pressures from geopolitical escalations in the Middle East and weak Chinese demand.

Today’s data will guide near-term market trends and investor sentiment amid fiscal strains, political doubts, and global trade uncertainties.

Brazil

• 07:25 AM EST / 08:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides a weekly snapshot of market expectations for inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates, guiding investor sentiment and monetary policy outlooks.
• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – IBC-Br Economic Activity (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.80%. Tracks economic activity, signaling growth trends and influencing fiscal and monetary policy expectations.

India

• 02:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM BRT – WPI Inflation (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 0.80%, previous 0.85%. Measures wholesale price inflation, impacting demand for Brazilian commodity exports.
• 02:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM BRT – WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.62%. Tracks manufacturing price trends, signaling industrial demand for Brazilian metals.
• 07:00 AM EST / 08:00 AM BRT – Trade Balance (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -26.42B. Reflects export-import dynamics, influencing commodity trade flows.

Switzerland

• 02:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM BRT – PPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -0.5%. Tracks producer price trends, affecting global commodity demand.
• 02:30 AM EST / 03:30 AM BRT – PPI (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 0.1%, previous 0.1%. Measures monthly producer price changes, signaling cost pressures for Brazilian exports.

Eurozone

• 03:00 AM EST / 04:00 AM BRT – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides insights into Bundesbank policy, impacting Eurozone demand for Brazilian exports.
• 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – Italian CPI (YoY) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 1.7%, previous 1.7%. Tracks consumer price inflation, influencing trade sentiment for Brazilian goods.
• 05:00 AM EST / 06:00 AM BRT – Wages in Eurozone (YoY) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.10%. Reflects wage growth, impacting consumer demand for Brazilian exports.

United States

• 08:30 AM EST / 09:30 AM BRT – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus -5.90, previous -9.20. Measures manufacturing activity, driving demand for Brazilian oil and agricultural goods.

South Africa

• All Day – Holiday: Youth Day. Markets closed, potentially reducing trading volume and impacting commodity price momentum.

Brazil’s Markets on Friday

On June 13, 2025, Brazil’s B3 index closed at 137,212.63 points, down 0.43%, reflecting global turmoil, worsening fiscal projections, and mounting political uncertainty.

The index traded between 136,585.90 and 137,799.95, ending nearly 2% below its May record, with daily trading volumes hitting R$27.6 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year.

Market caution was driven by geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, where Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites triggered a global risk-off move.

Domestically, fiscal strains intensified, with the 2025 fiscal deficit forecast rising to R$104 billion, exposing deeper budget risks. Political doubts and fiscal uncertainties further pressured investor sentiment, particularly impacting financial and commodity-driven stocks.

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U.S. Markets on Friday

U.S. stocks faced sharp declines on June 13, 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 fell 68.29 points, or 1.1%, to 5,976.97, wiping out weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 769.83 points, or 1.8%, to 42,197.79, while the Nasdaq composite lost 255.66 points, or 1.3%, to 19,406.83. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 39.59 points, or 1.8%, to 2,100.51.

Crude prices surged 7% due to fears of supply disruptions, pushing Treasury yields higher amid inflation concerns. The CBOE Volatility Index spiked 19%, reflecting heightened market anxiety.

Commodities

Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real held steady on June 13, 2025, with USD/BRL closing at R$5.54, up 0.13%, as the U.S. dollar failed to break resistance at 5.60. Technical analysis on the daily chart shows USD/BRL consolidating near 5.54, with support at 5.52 and resistance at 5.60.

Fiscal uncertainty lingers due to a projected R$104 billion fiscal deficit, but high real interest rates at 14.75% continue to attract carry trade interest. Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout and U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index may introduce volatility.

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Oil Prices

Oil prices stalled on June 13, 2025, after a 7% surge, with Brent crude consolidating near $74.23 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The rally supports Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, but global demand uncertainties persist. Today’s U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will provide demand signals critical for Brazil’s energy sector.

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Gold Prices

Gold cooled on June 13, 2025, trading near $3,433 per troy ounce after a 14% surge driven by safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions.

Traders booked profits as technical signals flashed a pause, but stability supports Brazil’s mining sector, including Vale. Today’s Eurozone Italian CPI and German Buba President Nagel’s speech may influence safe-haven flows.

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Silver Prices

Silver held steady on June 13, 2025, trading near $34.50 per ounce, supported by tight supply and steady industrial demand in solar and electronics.

This resilience aids Brazil’s mining exports, though momentum is constrained. Today’s Eurozone Wages in Eurozone and U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will guide industrial metal demand trends.

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Copper Prices

Copper prices remained stable on June 13, 2025, trading near $4.85 per pound, as markets balanced supply surplus fears against tariff-related uncertainties.

This steadiness supports Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and India’s WPI Manufacturing Inflation will clarify industrial demand outlooks.

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Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin gained modestly on June 13, 2025, trading at $105,480.51, down 1.97%, as overnight gains signaled cautious optimism amid shifting technical barriers.

This resilience supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.

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Iron Ore Prices

Iron ore prices held near lows on June 13, 2025, with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index trading near $92 per ton, pressured by oversupply and weak Chinese demand.

This decline impacts Vale’s revenues. Today’s India’s Trade Balance and U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will provide commodity demand trends.

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Companies and Market

Industry Outlook

Brazil’s services sector growth held steady in early 2025, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase in Q1, driven by transport and professional services, though momentum slowed due to high borrowing costs and fiscal uncertainty.

The BCB Focus Market Readout projects 2025 GDP growth at 2.3% and inflation at 5.2% by year-end, with the Selic rate at 14.75% and public debt at 76.2% straining fiscal sustainability. The 2025 fiscal deficit is forecast at R$104 billion, exposing budget risks.

Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-Br Economic Activity, U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and Eurozone Wages in Eurozone will shape currency stability and export demand, critical for commodity-driven industries.

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Company Updates

JBS’s Global Ambitions: JBS, despite past corruption fallout, is targeting Wall Street growth with a dual listing plan to fund global expansion.

The company reported a 7.3% revenue increase in Q1 2025, driven by U.S. and Australian beef demand, though legal risks from a 2017 scandal persist.

Its focus on premium beef exports supports Brazil’s agribusiness sector. Today’s India’s Trade Balance and Eurozone Wages in Eurozone may guide agricultural export sentiment.

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MRV’s Buyback Strategy: MRV Engenharia launched a share buyback program on June 13, 2025, to counter losses, with shares hitting 17-year lows at R$6.45. The company faces high interest rates and weak demand, with Q1 2025 net losses of R$130 million.

The buyback aims to stabilize stock prices, but fiscal uncertainties weigh on real estate sentiment. Today’s BCB Focus Market Readout and IBC-Br Economic Activity may influence real estate sector outlook.

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Explanation of EST

Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern part of the United States, including major cities like New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami. It is UTC-5, meaning it is 5 hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

EST is used during the standard time period, typically from early November to mid-March, but in this report, it is applied as requested for consistency. It is the most common U.S. time zone due to its association with key financial and political centers.