Today’s Key Themes

• Geopolitical shock from U.S. capture of Maduro → revived safe-haven flows (gold +), contained oil reaction, potential shift in LatAm risk perception
• Real resilience continues despite firmer DXY → USD/BRL drifting toward sub-5.40
• Ibovespa soft in thin liquidity, range-bound with commodity pressure and political noise
• Watch U.S. ISM Manufacturing today for dollar/commodity sentiment cues
• Risk appetite tested regionally amid U.S. policy signals toward leftist governments

Latin America’s markets continue the first full trading week of 2026, with Brazil’s B3 in São Paulo set to provide the region’s deepest liquidity for equities, futures, and currency products. Mexico’s Bolsa Mexicana de Valores is also scheduled to open normally.

Top Story: Venezuela Geopolitical Shock

The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro (and Cilia Flores) and his transfer to New York for drug-trafficking proceedings has injected major geopolitical risk.

President Trump declared U.S. intent to control the oil-rich nation and issued warnings to Colombia and Mexico. This revived safe-haven demand (gold above $4,400), with limited oil impact given Venezuela’s low output.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 5, 2026. (Photo Internet reproduction)

Brazil’s opposition sharply blames President Lula for years of perceived support (e.g., 2024 statements calling elections “normal” and rejecting full “dictatorship” label).

Combined with Trump’s criticism of socialist-led Colombia and Mexico, this may increase global scrutiny on LatAm political stability and EM risk appetite — especially for Brazil under a leftist government. Market reaction contained so far, but the episode tests hemispheric confidence.

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Economic Agenda for January 5, 2026

Brazil

• 13:00 PM BRT – Trade Balance (Dec) Cons: 6.39B Prev: 5.84B

United States

• 06:00 AM BRT – Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.2%
• 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Cons: 48.3 Prev: 48.2
  (plus New Orders, Employment, Prices subcomponents)

Implication: Brazil’s trade data offers insight into export strength amid commodity volatility — stronger surplus would bolster real flows. U.S. ISM is key for global sentiment, dollar direction, commodity demand, and EM carry trades in thin conditions and Venezuela uncertainty.

(Note: Dec Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 from 48.8 — deeper contraction across subcomponents, highlighting need for fiscal/investment support.)

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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Friday, January 2, 2026)

Ibovespa -0.36% to 160,538.69 in thin liquidity. Pressure from softer commodities (Brent -0.16% to $60.75/bbl, iron ore -0.57% to $109.76/tonne).

Petrobras & Vale followed weakness; Minerva (BEEF3) -6%+ on China’s new 55% beef safeguard tariff. Brasília institutional noise (Banco Master liquidation scrutiny) added drag.

Uptrend intact but momentum cooling — range-bound (support ~159,450–160,100 | resistance ~160,700–163,500).

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Commodity Markets

Gold ↑ – Rebounds above $4,400 (spot ~$4,406–$4,423/oz) on Venezuela safe-haven revival.

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Copper ↑ – Breakout tests $5.90/lb on tight supply & arbitrage.

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Silver ↑ – Jumps toward $75 amid stretched bull + geopolitics.

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Iron Ore – Steady near $106 as China reopens.

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Palladium – Whiplash from geopolitics/auto policy.
Platinum ↑ – Spike on geopolitics, technical resistance.
Aluminium ↑ – Above $3,000 again, politics leading.

Currency

Brazilian Real ↑ – USD/BRL -1.16% on Jan 2 to R$5.4256 (range R$5.4182–5.4516), defying firmer DXY. Thin liquidity reversal + real resilience point toward sub-5.40 drift.

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Companies and Market

No major individual company headlines in latest session. Focus on commodity drag (e.g. Minerva tariff hit), Brasília noise, and Venezuela developments.

U.S. Markets Yesterday (Friday, January 2, 2026)

Mixed close: Dow +0.7% to 48,382.39 | S&P 500 +0.2% to 6,858.47 | Nasdaq flat at 23,235.63 (-0.03%).

Russell 2000 +1.1%. Chip strength (SOX +4.01%) led (Nvidia/Intel), snapping Dow/S&P losing streak. Tesla drag on Nasdaq after lower annual sales. VIX -2.94% to 14.51. Tariff-delay news lifted some retailers.

Regional Peers — Mixed start: Colombia choppy peso/steady stocks | Mexico firm peso/cooling rally | Argentina tightening spreads/holding gains | Chile slipping peso/cooling post-2025 surge.

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Note: Crypto rebound appears trade-driven, not structural.