The 2026 FIFA World Cup will see the eight best third-place teams advance to the knockout stages of the tournament.

So far, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Ecuador, Paraguay and Senegal have already secured their places in the round of 32 after finishing third in their groups.

The eight best sides are determined first by points and then by goal difference, with the final standings to be decided on Saturday night.

US sports publication The Athletic has developed a prediction model based on thousands of tournament simulations to estimate which third-place teams are most likely to advance.

According to the model, teams finishing third in their groups with four points or more are effectively guaranteed a place in the knockout rounds. A third-place team with three points would likely depend on goal difference, while a team finishing third with two points would not qualify.

Which third-place teams have qualified?

Ecuador — Group E

Ecuador have reached the knockout stage with four points and a goal difference of zero.

The South American side lost their opening match against the Ivory Coast and drew 0–0 with Curaçao, but they produced a major upset in their final group match at MetLife Stadium, defeating Germany 2–1.

According to The Athletic’s model, Mexico are the most likely opponent for Ecuador in the knockout round.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — Group B

Bosnia and Herzegovina advanced to the round of 32 after finishing third behind Switzerland and Canada, picking up four points and a goal difference of minus one.

They will face the United States in Santa Clara on 1 July.

Sweden — Group F

Sweden qualified with four points and a goal difference of zero.

A 1–1 draw against Japan in their final group match was enough for the Swedes to recover despite a heavy 5–1 defeat against the Netherlands.

France or Norway are the most likely opponents for Sweden in the knockout stage.

Senegal — Group I

Senegal beat Iraq 5–0 in their final group match, leaving them on three points and with a goal difference of two.

Paraguay — Group D

After a goalless draw against Australia on Thursday night, Paraguay have four points and a goal difference of minus two, confirming their qualification for the knockout stage.

Most likely to go through

Group L — 86% chance

The team that finishes third in this group has a strong chance of advancing.

Ghana currently sit second with four points and a goal difference of plus one, while Croatia are third with three points and a goal difference of minus one. The two teams meet on Saturday.

Ghana’s current points total has effectively secured their place in the knockout stage. Even if Ghana lose to Croatia and fall to third place, their four points would still put them ahead of South Korea and Scotland, the third-place teams that have already completed their matches. They would also remain ahead of Iraq in Group I.

Croatia defeated Panama 1–0 in their second group match, partially recovering from the disappointment of losing their opening game against England.

The Athletic model gives Croatia an 86% chance of reaching the knockout stage.

A heavy defeat against Ghana could still put Croatia at risk of elimination.

Group G — 51% chance

Belgium topped the group thanks to a 5–1 victory over bottom-placed New Zealand. Egypt secured second place and qualification despite drawing 1–1 with Iran. Iran finished third with three points and a goal difference of zero, and they remain in contention for a place in the knockout stage.

Iran are in a stronger position than South Korea and Scotland, who also have three points but inferior goal differences.

They must now wait for the results of the remaining final-round group matches on Saturday. Iran will be eliminated if Algeria and Austria draw in their Group J match and both advance, if the Democratic Republic of Congo defeat Uzbekistan, and if Croatia collect at least one point against Ghana.

Group K — 43% chance

Colombia have qualified after winning their opening two matches and will face Portugal in Miami on Saturday.

The Democratic Republic of Congo are currently third with one point and a goal difference of minus one. They face Uzbekistan in their final game. A victory would give DR Congo a strong chance of progressing.

The Athletic model estimates DR Congo’s chances of qualifying in third place at 42%, while Uzbekistan’s chances are just 1%.

Group J — 42% chance

Argentina have already qualified, while Jordan are already out.

Austria and Algeria will meet on Saturday to decide the remaining positions.

Austria are currently second with three points and a goal difference of zero. They were heavily beaten by Lionel Messi’s Argentina in their opening match but secured a crucial win over Jordan.

Austria have an 81% chance of advancing: 66% as the group’s second-place team and 15% as a third-place qualifier.

Algeria also have three points, with a goal difference of minus two. They lost to Argentina and defeated Jordan.

Algeria have a 61% chance of progressing: 34% as runners-up and 27% as a third-place qualifier.

If Algeria lose to Austria, they must avoid conceding too many goals, as goal difference could decide their fate.

The probability that third place in Group J will be enough to reach the final 32 teams is 42%.

Which other teams could still qualify?

South Korea — Group A

South Korea’s chances of progressing stand at 50% with three points and a goal difference of minus one.

Scotland — Group C

Scotland are in a tricky position with three points and a goal difference of minus three.

They lost their final group match 3–0 against Brazil, and according to The Athletic’s model, their chances of advancing are just 5%.