• Ukraine sends experts and offers drones to Gulf states, enhancing their defence against Iranian attacks.
• Ukraine’s advanced drone defence and combat data systems aim to stabilise the Gulf and gain international backing.
• Rising oil prices and US resource diversion strengthen Russia’s economy and weaken Ukraine’s battlefield position.

The United States, which stopped providing military and financial assistance to Ukraine under President Donald Trump, has asked for Kyiv’s assistance in protecting its bases from Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Gulf.

Ukraine’s head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, made the request public on 6 March.

Two days later, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would send military experts to the Gulf.

On 9 March, Zelensky also dispatched his chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, to sell Ukrainian interceptor drones to Gulf states.

Zelensky said the US and more than 10 European and Middle Eastern countries had already reached out to Ukraine, “requesting our support for their defensive capabilities”.

Ukraine had a vested interest in answering that call, said Zelensky.

He said:

Ukraine has struck drone co-production agreements with a number of European allies. It has proposed the same to the US.

“Everyone now sees that there is no alternative to this approach,” he said.

The Washington Post reported on 6 March that Russia had been helping Iran target US assets and allies in the Gulf, citing three unnamed US officials.

Washington perceives Iran as an enemy, but not Russia. Moscow’s collusion could help Ukraine to change that perception and realign Washington with Kyiv and its European allies.

Ukraine had other vested interests in helping the Gulf states.

While Iran manages to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to tankers, a large proportion of the world’s oil is kept off-market, raising prices.

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To mitigate the effects on allies, the Trump administration lifted its restrictions on Russian crude purchases for the month to 4 April, a windfall worth billions to Russian oil companies and President Vladimir Putin’s war chest.

The Financial Times estimated Moscow had already received a windfall of $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion in taxes from oil exports.

Benchmark Brent crude has risen by about $20 since the war in the Gulf began, which can generate an estimated $3.3 billion for the Russian treasury over a month, according to one estimate.

Indian imports of Russian oil had risen by about 50%, and on 13 March, 30 tankers carrying 19 million barrels of Russian crude were reported to be awaiting buyers in the Asian market.

There was a further incentive for Ukraine.

Gulf states were reportedly using expensive Patriot interceptors to bring down drones headed their way because they lacked cheaper alternatives.

Kovalenko wrote on Telegram:

“Why are we using Patriots against Shahed drones?” asked General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe.

“There are technologies out there that Ukrainians have been developing that are better for counter-drone. You don’t want to waste a Patriot interceptor against a Shahed drone.”

Ukraine has run short of Patriot interceptors, which are effective against the ballistic missiles Russia launches against its infrastructure every week, and has asked countries that have interceptors to sell or donate them.

Chicago University history professor John Mearsheimer summed up the Russian advantages from the war on Iran, which the US and Israel launched on 28 February.

Mearsheimer said:

“I think there is no question this is hurting Ukrainians on the battlefield … demand for Russian oil and gas is going to go up.”

“Ukrainian experts will work on the ground to support real efforts to stabilise the situation and restore, in particular, safe navigation in the region,” said Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s defence minister.

The value of Ukraine’s expertise

On 4 March, the fifth day of the war on Iran, Ukraine said Iran had already fired 800 missiles and 1 400 drones against Gulf states.

Ukraine has experience in defending against swarms of drones.

In the past week, it said it downed 90% of the 1 250 drones Russia launched, and more than half of the 34 missiles. Many of those drones are Shaheds – the same Iranian design that Iran has been flying into its Gulf neighbours.

Fedorov, who is in conversation with the governments of Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain, said:

Fedorov also revealed that Ukrainian drone operators are now responsible for 96% of Russian casualties.

Zelensky said Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) had obtained Russian documents recording casualties of 1.3 million for the entire war, 62% of whom were deaths – a higher percentage than Ukraine had previously assumed.

Ukraine is now automating feedback from its drones in order to better determine which types are most effective.

Mission Control, the command system, will automatically generate reports on the effectiveness of each drone mission. It will relieve front-line units of paper reports and give commanders “real-time operational tracking”, said the ministry.

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“This is the first time that procurement decisions are being automatically generated based on real combat data,” said Fedorov.

Ukraine has also been effective in striking Russian defence industries.

On 10 March, it used Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to strike the Kremniy El microchip factory in the city of Bryansk – reportedly using a drone to better guide the missiles for the first time.

Five missiles reportedly struck the facility.

Kremniy El claims it is the largest manufacturer of chips for Russia’s military, which are used in the cruise missiles Russia uses to attack Ukraine.